“We have a lot to be happy about.”   Lease Sale Success.

State nets $28.1 million in Slope, Beaufort Sea lease sales
Elwood Brehmer, Alaska Journal of Commerce, November 15, 2018

Exploration interest remained high in the state’s North Slope and Beaufort Sea annual lease sales held Thursday morning, which netted $28.1 million for the state treasury. Winning bids for the North Slope portion of the sale totaled about $27.3 million, the third highest amount since 1998, according to Division of Oil and Gas Director Chantal Walsh. Successful bidders spent about $848,000 for near shore Beaufort Sea leases, which is in line with historical averages, Walsh said. The state received bids on 133 tracts covering 223,680 onshore North Slope acres and eight Beaufort Sea tracts totaling 20,270 acres garnered bids, according to division officials. “We have a lot to be happy about — a very good lease sale,” Walsh said.

Alaska LNG:

With the election over, what’s next for the gas line?
Tim Bradner, Anchorage Daily News, November 15, 2018

Meyer: Alaska LNG project poised to meet future Asia demand
Steve Quinn, KTVA, November 15, 2018

From the Washington Examiner, Daily on Energy:

INTERIOR PREPARES MASSIVE ARCTIC OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS LEASE SALE: The Interior Department said Thursday it was beginning an environmental review for an oil and gas drilling lease sale next year in 65 million acres of federal Arctic waters.

Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said it was preparing an environmental impact statement for a proposed lease sale in the Beaufort Sea, off Alaska’s northern coast.

“We especially need to hear from residents of the Beaufort Sea communities, letting us know how the proposed leasing area is currently being used and what specific areas need extra attention,” said James Kendall, director of BOEM’s Alaska Region. “To address these issues, we will use rigorous science together with traditional knowledge and other input we receive from this early step in the leasing process.”

Alaska oil and gas push: The move is the latest example of the Trump administration aiming to boost Alaskan oil output, despite uncertain industry interest because of high costs and opposition from environmentalists.

When helping hurts – Walker to continue as “champion” of resource development.

Dunleavy taps Feige to be Alaska Natural Resources head
Becky Bohrer, Associated Pres, November 15, 2018

Gov.-elect Mike Dunleavy on Wednesday named a former director of Alaska’s Division of Oil and Gas to be his Natural Resources commissioner. Dunleavy announced his selection of Corri Feige during a Resource Development Council conference in Anchorage in which he repeated that Alaska would be “open for business” under his administration. Dunleavy said he would ask Gov. Bill Walker’s administration to halt the creation of any new regulations until the new administration is in place. Walker spokesman Austin Baird said late Wednesday afternoon that the administration had not yet received any direct request from Dunleavy or his team. But he said Walker has no plans to implement new regulations that would restrict resource development. Through the remainder of his term, Walker “will continue to champion responsible resource development of Alaska’s vast natural resources, from oil and gas to minerals to timber,” Baird wrote in an email. “Because there was never any plan to implement new regulations restricting resource development, the Governor-elect is effectively asking the Walker Administration to continue the work we’ve been doing for the past four years,” Baird wrote.

Our Take: Congratulations to Commissioner Feige! Baird’s response to Governor-elect Dunleavy’s request highlights one of the major problems with government. The right hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing. Some of Governor Walker’s commissioners are currently taking actions that hurt not only resource development, but businesses in general in Alaska.   Headlamp is looking forward to a governor who will direct his entire team to help, not hurt, Alaska business.

AGDC project schedule calls for work to begin first-quarter 2020
Larry Persily, Alaska Journal of Commerce, November 15, 2018

The Alaska Gasline Development Corp. told federal regulators Nov. 6 that it plans to start building construction camps and access roads at the natural gas liquefaction plant site in Nikiski in the first quarter of 2020 and along the 807-mile pipeline route by the second quarter. The state-led project’s latest timeline still shows first liquefied gas production by fall 2024. Sticking to that schedule assumes the state corporation can sign LNG customers to binding long-term contracts, complete the deals to buy gas from North Slope producers, find investors and financing for the estimated $43 billion project, acquire the rights to about 900 acres of land in Nikiski, secure any state legislative approvals that may be needed, work through all the required federal and state regulatory authorizations, and reach terms with contractors and suppliers for one of the most expensive energy projects in U.S. history.

Our Take: Securing funding to keep on this timeline is critical for AGDC. Their options aren’t, nor should be, limited to money from the state to proceed.

UAE says energy executives should embrace A.I. to improve profits
Sam Meredith, CNBC, November 13, 2018

Big Oil should do all it can to embrace fast-improving Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the energy industry, according to the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) first minister dedicated to fostering the technology. Speaking at the ADIPEC oil summit in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, Omar bin Sultan Al Olama, the UAE’s minister of state for AI technology said: “Data is the new oil.” “Any company, any government that merges data and oil is going to get yields that we have never seen before. We are going to see lower costs, with profits that cannot be found elsewhere.” The oil and gas market represents around 50 percent of the world’s energy demand at present, Al Olama said, before adding data, blockchain, AI, the internet of things and other emerging technologies would radically change the industry over the coming years.

Zinke gave rare attention to Alaska: The next secretary of the Interior should do likewise
Fairbanks Daily News Miner Editorial, November 14, 2018

Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke has taken a great deal of action in Alaska compared to his predecessors, which is why ongoing investigations into alleged ethics violations should grab your attention. Secretary Zinke has been criticized for breaking government travel rules before. What’s new is the Justice Department is investigating a land deal in his hometown of Whitefish, Montana. A foundation that Secretary Zinke started, and has remained involved with, has ties to this land deal. The problem is that the development is backed by the chairman of the Halliburton oil company and there’s potential for Secretary Zinke to benefit from this. In a word, Secretary Zinke has been polarizing for Alaskans. But he has given rare attention to Alaska.

China Outlines Possible Concessions to U.S. Ahead of G-20 Talks, Sources Say
Shawn Donnan, Saleha Mohsin, Jenny Leonard, Bloomberg, November 14, 2018

Chinese officials have outlined a series of potential concessions to the Trump administration for the first time since the summer as they continue to try to resolve a trade war, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The commitments for now fall short of the type of major structural reforms that President Donald Trump has been demanding, two of the people said, cautioning that a long road lies ahead in negotiations. One person said that talks between the world’s two largest economies are continuing and constructive.

New governor, new strategy for Alaska LNG? Is the worst over for oil? Fisher says yes!

New governor offers hints at Alaska megaproject’s future
Margaret Kriz Hobson, E & E News, November 14, 2018

Late last week, Alaska Gasline Development Corp. President Keith Meyer delivered an upbeat status report on the progress of the Alaska liquefied natural gas export project, the state’s proposed $44 billion venture to sell its bountiful natural gas reserves into Asian markets. Speaking at the AGDC board of director’s monthly meeting, Meyer talked about the corporation’s recent discussions with Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staffers about the state’s application to build the export project. He shared the details of recent visits to Alaska by officials of PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corp. and the China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, which are both considering buying Alaska’s natural gas. Meyer also laid out a plan to create two new limited liability companies within AGDC to handle some of the agency’s operations. It wasn’t until the very end of his presentation that Meyer finally addressed the elephant in the room — the results of the Alaska elections, which could drastically alter the future of the LNG

Our Take: Will Governor-elect Dunleavy encourage a return to the partnership between industry and the state to advance Alaska LNG? He has been a strong proponent of the private sector and their ability to do what government cannot do.

Renowned energy trader Mark Fisher says the worst is over for oil and it’s time to buy
Berkley Lovelace Jr. & Tom DiChristopher, CNBC, November 14, 2018

Renowned energy trader Mark Fisher on Wednesday said the “worst is over” for the crude oil market following a six-week rout that has seen U.S. crude lose over a quarter of its value. The MBF Clearing founder and CEO said he’d be a buyer right now rather than a seller. The market outlook for crude oil has recently flipped. Investors were worried about a shortage of oil as U.S. sanctions shrank Iran’s crude exports. But the market now expects supply to outstrip demand as the outlook for consumption growth weakens and Washington allows some Iranian crude shipments to continue. However, Fisher theorized that much of the drop in oil prices is due to macro funds getting out of the crude trade and rotating into natural gas futures. He argued that for years, buying oil and selling natural gas has been a huge winner.

A MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE BETWEEN NATURAL GAS GIANTS IRAN AND RUSSIA
Thang Q. Tran & Alan W. Lancaster, Natural Gas World, November 13, 2018

Iran’s substantial natural gas reserves provide Russia with a significant strategic opportunity to solidify its role in the international arena. Although US secondary sanctions against Iran’s petroleum sector resumed on November 5, Russia will most likely defy them by continuing to invest in Iran’s natural gas sector. Russia may also seek to influence the flow of Iran’s natural gas into the European market, where it could undermine Russia’s political-economic interests if not coordinated with Moscow. Iran possesses the potential to emerge as a major natural gas exporter that could alter trade relations within the global market but needs foreign investment. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), sanctions relief reopened the door for investment and allowed Iran to plan for and implement growth in its natural gas sector to meet rising domestic demand and free up oil for export in the short term. In the long term, Iran can ensure its survival in a post-oil era by securing a share of the global natural gas market.

A graphite deposit inspires plans for Bering Strait mine, infrastructure upgrades
Yereth Rosen, Arctic Today, November 14, 2018

Graphite, the material used to fill simple pencils, is a building block for the modern, high-tech economy. With its thermal and electrical conductivity, graphite is a crucial material for lithium-ion batteries, and those batteries power the electric and hybrid vehicles that are replacing gasoline-powered cars around the world. But the United States imports its entire supply of graphite, largely from China. That need not be the case, one Canadian junior mining company contends. Vancouver-based Graphite One Resources Inc. is seeking to develop the nation’s richest graphite deposit, which lies on the Alaska side on the Bering Strait, 37 miles (55 km) north of Nome. The potential for the Graphite Creek Mine has been cited as a justification for a new deep-water port at Port Clarence. The site, which until 2010 held a U.S. Coast Guard navigational station, is considered a good candidate for a U.S. Arctic port because it could accommodate deep-draft vessels.

Our Take: One of many exciting resource development opportunities for the State of Alaska!   A new governor who is uber-supportive of mining and all responsible resource development, who understands the role government should play in supporting such development – like building infrastructure- can make a huge difference.

Drilling Productivity Report
U.S. Energy Information Administration, November 13, 2018

The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for seven key regions. EIA’s approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells produce both.

Headlamp –Tuesday’s Tougher Tailpipe standards; US and China are talking.

REPORT: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO TIGHTEN TAILPIPE STANDARDS FOR TRUCKS
Jason Hopkins, The Daily Caller, November 13, 2018

In what may be the biggest exception yet to its deregulation agenda, the Trump administration is expected to announce tougher tailpipe standards for heavy-duty trucks. Billed as the “Cleaner Trucks Initiative,” Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler and other Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials are due to announce stricter regulations for big trucks, according to sources who spoke with E&E News. The new standards aim to reduce smog-forming nitrogen oxide, better known as “NOx” that is emitted from big rigs. NOx is known to have a number of detrimental effects to the environment and human health, which can exacerbate asthma and cause inflammation of respiratory airwaves.

Our Take: Industry representatives and clean air advocates appear to agree on this. Trucking employs over 13,700 people in Alaska, 1 out of every 19 workers. Trucking pays over 800 million dollars in wages annually with an average industry salary of $56,283.

Opec lowers oil demand growth forecast and warns of oversupply
Anji Raval, Financial Times, November 13, 2018

Opec has again lowered its forecast for 2019 oil demand growth in a further sign Saudi Arabia and its partners inside and outside the cartel could be forced to cut supplies to bring the market into balance. Opec’s research arm said on Tuesday world oil demand was forecast to grow by 1.29m barrels a day next year, which is about 70,000 b/d lower than last month’s forecast and sharply down on the 1.45m b/d it forecast in July. Worries are mounting about a slowdown in the world economy, trade tensions and emerging market countries’ currency weakness, and how these will impact on oil demand.

Related:

Factbox: Key oil forecasts from the IEA’s World Energy Outlook
S & P Global Platts, November 13, 2018

The International Energy Agency on Tuesday published its latest World Energy Outlook, containing closely watched, long-term forecasts for energy supply and demand to 2040. Below are some of the key projections for the oil sector:

Big Oil Is Now Thrifty—but That Comes at a Cost
Sarah Kent & Bradley Olson, The Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2018

Oil prices may have weakened recently, but they’re up strongly from lows just a few years back. Few executives, however, at the world’s integrated oil giants have been talking about ramping up spending. That raises a big question: Can companies keep a lid on spending and keep the crude flowing? The oil business works like a treadmill. To maintain production levels, companies have to keep approving new projects and finding, or buying new, untapped deposits. In the industry, this is called replacing reserves. To guarantee output growth, firms have historically tried to at least replace every barrel they take out of the ground and sell.

White House economic advisor Kudlow says US is speaking again with China on trade
Liz Moyer, CNBC, November 13, 2018

Top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Tuesday the U.S. is talking with China again on trade. “I think that’s very, very, very positive,” he said, confirming reports that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has restarted trade talks with his Chinese counterpart. President Donald Trump said Nov. 1 he had a conversation with China’s President Xi Jinping, and the two sides plan to discuss trade at the Nov. 30-Dec.1 G-20 summit of world leaders in Argentina. Talks between the U.S. and China had stalled this fall amid an escalating tariff battle.

Our Take: Kudlow also highlights the strength of US communications with the EU and Japan. Strengthening our relationships with those allies certainly should get China’s attention and strengthen the US negotiating position. Read the next headline…

First U.S. LNG cargo since 10 percent tariff enacted arrives in China: data
Jessica Jaganathan, Reuters, November 11, 2018

A liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo from the United States has arrived in China, the first such cargo since Beijing imposed a tariff on U.S. imports, shipping data from Refinitiv Eikon showed on Monday. China, the second-biggest importer of LNG globally after Japan, announced in September a 10 percent tariff on U.S. LNG imports as part of an escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. Since the tariffs were announced, Chinese companies have largely been diverting U.S. shipments to other countries, trade sources said. This is the first U.S. LNG cargo to be shipped to China since Sept. 10, the Eikon shipping data showed. The cargo was shipped on tanker Ribera Duero Knutsen from the Sabine Pass terminal operated by Cheniere Energy.

 

More $ for Alaska LNG? The power of the pipeline; Oil Pucks and Pellets

From the weekly One Alaska Update – Governor Walker’s Budget:

“One of the things we’re working on is a sustainable and strategic budget for the next Governor to work from. It will continue to make Alaska safer by funding troopers, courts, VPSOs, 911 capability, and opioid crisis response programs under the Public Safety Action Plan. It will include a healthy capital budget to drive Alaska’s economy, as well as investment in our tourism and seafood sectors, and the AKLNG project. It will forward fund education, to make sure districts have the resources they need to ensure each of Alaska’s children has a stable, bright, and safe future in our state. The budget should be finalized and made public by the end of the month.

Our Take: Governor-elect Dunleavy will inherit this budget. With former Governor Sean Parnell leading the transition on Alaska LNG – expect a serious review of any proposed funds for Alaska LNG.

OPEC and partners ‘will do what it takes’ to keep oil market balanced: Saudi energy minister Falih
S & P Global Platts, November 12, 2018

OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC partners would need to cut 1 million b/d from October oil production levels to avoid a supply glut in early 2019, according to the group’s analysis, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday. But because market conditions could change by the time the coalition meets December 6-7 in Vienna, a key monitoring committee that met Sunday did not recommend specific cuts, he said. “We are going to be flexible,” Falih said at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi, a day after co-chairing the OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting. “There are a lot of assumptions that may change in two to three weeks time.” But, he added, OPEC and its partners “will do what it takes” to keep the market balanced, with Saudi Arabia leading the way but cutting its crude exports by about 500,000 b/d in December.

Oil pucks and pellets; Canada eyes new ways to move stranded crude
Rod Nickel, Reuters, November 11, 2018

Canada’s biggest railroad says it is attracting interest from oil producers in its effort to move crude in solid, puck-like form, as clogged pipelines divert more oil to riskier rail transport. Congested pipelines have stranded much of Canada’s crude in Alberta, driving discounts to record-high levels. Canadian heavy crude traded on Friday for less than one-third of the U.S. benchmark light oil price. The latest blow to the sector landed on Thursday, when a U.S. court ruled construction must stop on TransCanada Corp’s (TRP.TO) Keystone XL pipeline.

Our Take: Necessity is the mother of invention.

Related:

                  Canada’s Crude Problem: Lots of Oil With Nowhere to Go

From the Washington Examiner Daily on Energy:

TRUMP LEVERAGES U.S. ENERGY FOR BIG GAINS ON THE GLOBAL STAGE: The tip of the spear when it comes to Trump’s diplomacy is not the tongue of the diplomat, but the power of the pipeline.

The United States is now the world’s No. 1 producer of oil and natural gas, eating away at Washington’s past dependence on foreign producers and oil cartels — that is, petrostates like Iran and Russia and autocracies around the world.

Trump calls it “energy dominance,” and the freedom it provides has undergirded many of the president’s decisions, from moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem to re-imposing sanctions on Iran, according to administration sources.

“It allows us to impose these sanctions and not upset the world oil market very much,” said Deputy Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette. “It’s a fundamentally different posture to be in, in regard to our foreign policy. … It just gives us leverage.”

In negotiations with European, Chinese, and other world leaders, the president has made energy a central theme. Earlier this year, Trump even taunted NATO members at a summit in Brussels, calling them “captives” to Russian energy.

Above all, the comment was aimed at Germany, which is working with the Russian state-run energy firm Gazprom to build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Cramer: ‘We are at war against the Chinese,’ and it’s not just over trade
Matthew J. Belvedere, CNBC, November 12, 2018

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Monday he does not expect a trade deal between the United States and China any time soon. “I think we are at war against the Chinese, and it’s not over. And the war is not just trade,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street,” taking cues from the hardline speech that White House trade advisor Peter Navarro delivered last week. Navarro, a longtime China critic, said Friday any agreement between Washington and Beijing to end their trade dispute, which resulted in back-and-forth tariffs, will be on “President Donald J. Trump’s terms, not Wall Street terms.” Cramer said the tone of Navarro’s speech on economics reminded him of the kind of rhetoric that then-President Ronald Reagan used decades ago during the Cold War with Russia over nuclear arms. “That’s a speech that Reagan gave against the Soviet Union. And that didn’t end well for the Soviet Union,” said Cramer, the host of “Mad Money.” “The G-20 is going to be so important.”

Related:

China calls for open world economy but work remains on landmark trade pact

Combating climate change or boosting oil and gas production? How about BOTH!

In Washington, politics around oil, climate change in flux
James Osborne, The Houston Chronicle, November 7, 2018

After almost a decade of oil-friendly Republicans controlling Congress, the energy sector faced a dramatically different political landscape Wednesday. Where Republicans pushed an end to the oil export ban and the relaxing of environmental regulations around drilling, the new Democratic-led House is expected to be more interested in combating climate change than boosting oil and gas production.

Our Take: With a new administration in Alaska that is more interested in boosting oil and gas production and the Trump administration and the US Senate feeling the same way – this could get interesting. The notion that you have to choose on path over the other is wrong. US house democrats would be wise to recognize that.

Related:

After defeat in West, U.S. carbon tax push looks East
Gregory Scruggs, Reuters, November 8, 2018

Federal judge blocks Keystone XL pipeline, saying Trump administration review ignored ‘inconvenient’ climate change facts
Fred Barbash, Allyson Chiu and Juliet Eilperin, The Washington Post, November 9, 2018

December oil lease sale scheduled for federal lands in Arctic Alaska
Yereth Rosen, Arctic Today, November 9, 2018

About 2.85 million acres of federal territory in Arctic Alaska will be offered next month for oil and gas exploration, officials announced in a Federal Register notice. The annual oil and gas lease sale for the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, a 23 million-acre swath of land on the western side of Alaska’s North Slope, will be held on Dec. 12, the Bureau of Land Management said in the notice. The lease sale will put 254 tracts on the auction block, the notice said. That’s much less land than was offered in last year’s NPR-A lease sale. That sale offered 900 tracts spread over 10.3 million acres, the most ever put up for action in the reserve’s history. Despite the vast amount of land offered, the 2017 lease sale attracted only seven bids.

Our Take: The investment climate has changed since 2017- Headlamp hopes to see a healthy lease sale!

From the Washington Examiner, Daily on Energy:

MEANWHILE… PROGRESS ON TRUMP’S ENERGY DOMINANCE AGENDA: Poland’s state-run oil company signed a 24-year contract on Thursday to buy liquefied natural gas from the U.S.-based company Cheniere, a transaction hailed as a victory for Trump’s energy dominance agenda meant to move Europe from dependence on Russian energy. “This LNG deal with Poland is a major step forward for our ally’s effort to become less reliant on Russian natural gas, which Vladimir Putin has used to bully and intimidate the Polish people,” said Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, where Cheniere is based. The company is the largest LNG exporter in the country.

Cheniere signed the deal with Polish Oil and Gas Company with Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Polish President Andrzej Duda present, according to a tweet by the company with photos of Perry and Duda presiding over the signing, saying it was “honored” to announce the deal in their presence.

Trump’s energy dominance agenda hinges on increasing natural gas exports to make the U.S. a bigger player in the global energy market, while diversifying supplies away from hostile regimes.

Our Take: Love to see the efforts to increase natural gas exports – good for Alaska LNG!

Dunleavy announcing team; Around the world in oil & gas – Canada, Africa, Russia

Governor-elect Dunleavy set to announce members of leadership team
Tegan Hanlon, Annie Zak, Anchorage Daily News, November 7, 2018

Dunleavy will announce “several members of his transition team, and cabinet appointments” on Thursday, according to an email from his team Wednesday. With Dunleavy’s win, the Alaska Republican Party will take back the governorship after four years of an independent in office. Republicans are also poised to hold the majority in the state House and state Senate. With Alaska U.S. Rep. Don Young notching yet another re-election Tuesday, Alaska’s congressional delegation remains all Republican.

Our Take:   If we had to bet, expect to see more private sector folks than life-long bureaucrats. #electionsmatter

Republicans organize Alaska House, choose Talerico as speaker
Devin Kelly, Anchorage Daily News, November 7, 2018

A Republican-controlled Alaska House of Representatives next session will be led by Rep. David Talerico, a retired miner from Healy, as part of a sweeping leadership shake-up in the chamber after Tuesday night’s election. Talerico announced the changes Wednesday afternoon at a news conference at the headquarters of the Associated General Contractors of Alaska in South Anchorage. He was flanked by 19 other members of the Republican House caucus, many wearing huge smiles.

Our Take: So great to see Reps Pruitt and Wilson – true budget hawks – co-chairing House Finance. This is the best shot Alaska has at getting it’s government spending reduced to a sustainable level.

Trudeau’s Reforms Won’t Break Pipeline Logjam, Oil Groups Warn
Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg, November 8, 2018

It’s a rough time in Canada’s oil patch, and the energy industry is warning that Justin Trudeau is about to make it worse. The bottom has fallen out of Canadian heavy crude prices, with their discount relative to the U.S. benchmark near a record amid a supply glut and persistent transport constraints. Trudeau’s government, meanwhile, is both trying to complete a pipeline expansion project it bought this spring and pass a series of legislative reforms on the approval process for major projects.

This Oil Boom Is Going Under The Radar
Irina Slav, OilPrice.Com, November 7, 2018

If anyone needed any further proof that Africa is shaping up as the next major hot spot in oil and gas, this year’s edition of Africa Oil Week will provide it. The event launched amid higher oil prices and booming exploration activity across the continent with supermajors and independents both upbeat about their prospects there. If we ignore the waywardness of oil prices, which served as the basis for Africa’s oil and gas recovery, and which can once again plunge local oil producers into recession should they drop, prospects are bright. A PwC report on the state of the oil industry of Africa, released on the first day of the event, noted how local oil and gas field operators had adjusted to the lower-price environment and are now in a position to reap the benefits of higher international prices for oil while their costs remain low.

Up to 9 million tons of Russian LNG will be reloaded in Norwegian waters during 2019
Malte Humpert, High North News, November 8, 2018

The Norwegian Coastal Administration (Kystverket) has released new information about the location, duration, and scope of Tschudi’s ship-to-ship transfer operation of liquefied natural gas in cooperation with Novatek’s Arctic Yamal project. According to regulatory documents the transshipments will be conducted in the Sarnesfjord and Outer Kåfjord area in the Nordkapp municipality, to the southwest of Honningsvåg. Operations are expected to begin before the end of the month and the company expects to reload up to 140 shipments between November 2018 and June 2019, or on average one every 36 hours. Tschudi Arctic Transit (TAT), a subsidiary of the Tschudi Group, will conduct up to 16 reloading operations in 2018 and 21 each month between January and June 2019. Each shipment will consist of around 80,000 tons of liquefied natural gas. Novatek’s Yamal LNG plant can produce up to 16.5 million tons of LNG annually. The permitted number of 140 shipments would be sufficient to reload the production output of the facility during the first six months of 2019. Neither Novatek nor Tschudi have made any public statements about their plans for the operation.

With great power comes great responsibility; Russia wants new ice zones.

ELECTION RESULTS: Republicans set to control executive, legislative branches
Steve Quinn, KTVA, November 7, 2018

Republicans are poised to control the executive branch and both chambers of the legislative branch for the first time since 2014. That’s when Mike Chenault served as House Speaker and Charlie Huggins served as Senate President during the Sean Parnell administration.   Former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy, a Wasilla Republican, held a decisive lead over Democratic challenger Mark Begich early Wednesday morning and is poised to succeed incumbent independent Gov. Bill Walker as the state’s 14th governor. “I’m going to hire the right people to do the best job possible, and we’re going to implement our agenda,” Dunleavy said. “Public safety is number one.”

Our Take: Now the real work begins.

Big Oil Wins Ballot Initiatives In Colorado, Washington
Tsvetna Paraskova, OilPrice.Com, November 7, 2018

Big Oil has poured a lot of money to defeat energy-restricting ballot initiatives in various states in the midterm elections, and it succeeded in two key votes. Voters in Colorado were asked to vote on a ballot proposition to increase the setback distance for drilling oil and gas wells by five times to 2,500 feet, which would have put a lot of land off limits for new developments. Voters in Washington State voted on a proposal to instate a U.S. first state-wide carbon tax. Both initiatives failed, and both ‘no’ camps were supported by Big Oil.

Our Take: In Alaska, Colorado & Washington, voters chose not to support “energy-restricting ballot initiatives.”   Using the term “big oil” downplays the most important message in these victories – voters, aka people, don’t support a keep-it-in-the-ground approach to resource development.   Congrats to all three states!!

Related:
Here is a map to show how Alaskans voted, by precinct, to defeat Ballot Measure 1

Russia looks to reduce ice-class demands for Arctic shipping
Atle Staalesen, The Independent Barents Observer, November 7, 2018

The Russian Transport Ministry aims for a revision of shipping regulations in Arctic waters. In a new normative act, the ministry calls for the introduction of new zones with lower ice-class requirements. Currently, the Arctic sea route is divided into seven parts with different ice-class requirements. The new regulations will diversify those areas. “It is necessary to specify criteria for the ships’ access to the waters of the Northern Sea Route and add several areas to the currently existing seven areas,” the ministry says. “This will enable us to create regions with homogenous ice conditions and provide access of ships to parts of the Northern Sea Route with light ice conditions.” The new regulations are described by RIA Novosti and also referred to by the ministry itself. The regime is due to come into effect in May 2019.

From the Washington Examiner Daily on Energy:

EPA TAKES CONTROVERSIAL NEW STEP TO MAKE THINGS EASIER FOR COAL PLANTS: The Environmental Protection Agency took steps Wednesday morning to clarify federal regulations that have in the past made it harder for coal power plants to make efficiency upgrades without triggering environmental reviews.

The change to the New Source Review permitting program has been “long-delayed” for nearly a decade, EPA said in its announcement.

“Previously, New Source Review regularly discouraged companies from employing the latest energy-efficient equipment,” said EPA Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “Our updates will remove undue regulatory barriers, provide greater certainty to America’s job creators and energy providers, and incentivize upgrades that will improve air quality.”

What the change does: The change seeks to clarify “project aggregation” under the permitting requirements, which has been a sticking point for coal and other fossil power plants in making efficiency upgrades. Aggregation can take individual changes to a plant to count as a new power plant altogether, making it harder for plants to get permits to operate under the Clean Air Act.

Our Take: Making it easier for coal power plants to run more efficiently seems like a no-brainer.

Round 2: Sturgeon, the Supremes and States Rights. Phaseout of fossil fuels?

Justices sound favorable to Alaska hunter with hovercraft
Associated Press, November 5, 2018

The Supreme Court sounded skeptical Monday of the National Park Service’s authority to prevent an Alaskan moose hunter from using his motorized rubber boat to access remote areas of the state. The justices heard arguments in a case that tests the limits of the federal government’s authority in a state in which more than 60 percent of the land is federally owned. The state and moose hunter John Sturgeon are arguing that the Park Service cannot enforce a national ban on amphibious vehicles known as hovercraft on a river in Alaska for which the state claims ownership, even though it runs through a national conservation area. Sturgeon won an earlier round at the Supreme Court.

Our Take: Hooray for John Sturgeon! Headlamp hopes for the best. As you consider who to vote for today for Governor, remember that Mike Dunleavy supports Sturgeon and states rights, while Mark Begich does not. Dunleavy is also a “No on One” while Begich is a “Yes”.

More and more Democrats are running on a total phaseout of fossil fuels
Josh Siegel, October 25, 2018

Democrats from all walks of political office are going for broke in the midterm elections on transitioning the U.S. electricity system away from fossil fuels to more quickly combat climate change.   More than 1,400 candidates running for every level of government office this November have committed to some form of a goal to mandate 100 percent clean, zero-emissions electricity in their state by 2050, according to the environmental group League of Conservation Voters.

Our Take: Campaign rhetoric or an achievable goal?

Oil tumbles 2%, briefly enters bear market, after Trump grants Iran sanctions waivers
Reuters, November 6, 2018

Oil prices tumbled more than 2 percent on Tuesday, briefly entering a bear market, after the Trump administration granted sanctions waivers that will allow some of Iran’s biggest customers to continue importing its oil. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped $1.33, or 2.1 percent, to $61.77 a barrel by 11:30 a.m. ET (1630 GMT), after six straight days of losses. International Brent crude oil futures were down $1.50, or 2.1 percent, at $71.67 a barrel, after breaking a five-day losing streak on Monday. The United States on Monday restored sanctions targeting Iran’s oil, banking and transport sectors and threatened more action to stop what Washington called its “outlaw” policies, steps Tehran called economic warfare and vowed to defy.

Related:
Iran Sanctions Won’t Fuel Oil Prices for Long
Sarah MacFarlane, The Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2018

Rosneft in stand-off with oil buyers as it seeks sanctions protection
Olga Yagova, Reuters, November 6, 2018

Rosneft wants its Western oil buyers to accept new terms and pay penalties from 2019 if they fail to pay for supplies in the event that new U.S. sanctions on the Russian energy major disrupt its oil sales, according to trading sources and Rosneft’s draft contracts. The buyers — including some of the world’s biggest oil companies and traders such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Vitol and Gunvor — are fiercely opposing the move, according to trading sources. The stand-off is likely to force Rosneft to soften its demands, the sources said, adding that the development shows the extent to which the state-owned oil giant is concerned about widening U.S. sanctions on Russia. “It is all very uncertain with the sanctions and Rosneft is clearly worried and is trying to minimize possible risks,” said a trading source with a European major. “We said no, we couldn’t accept this,” he added.

739,795 Reasons to Vote No on One

Every Alaskan has the potential to be negatively impacted if Ballot Measure One passes. That is why leaders who represent Alaskans from all walks of life are opposing the measure.

Here is what they have to say about why they are voting “No on One!”

Permanent Fund Defenders:
Larry Cash, Permanent Fund Trustee, 2013-2017:

“Ballot Measure 1 threatens to devastate economic growth in our state, which is just starting to recover from the dramatic drop in the price of oil of 2016. Proposition 1 creates unnecessary and undefined regulations that are not needed and are overreaching. This will negatively impact growth of the Permanent Fund, reducing Permanent Fund payments to our citizens immediately and long term. “

Our Take: If we have learned anything this election cycle, it is how strongly Alaskans feel about keeping their PFD and increasing the payments, not reducing them.

Native Corporations:
Rex Rock Sr, whaling captain, President and CEO of Arctic Slope Regional Corporation:

“The passage of Ballot Measure 1 would be catastrophic when it comes to its adverse impacts on rural Alaska. Burdensome and unnecessary regulations when it comes to infrastructure maintenance and improvements would either cause a lag in completing important projects across my region or make them economically unfeasible altogether.”

Our Take: No sewer improvements, no reliable affordable sources of energy, like natural gas, for rural Alaska.

Outdoor Enthusiasts:
John Sturgeon, Craig Compeau, Rick Rydell, Frank and Sue Entsminger, Kevin Kehoe, and Eddie Grasser:

“As written, Ballot Measure 1 works to restrict Alaskan outdoor enthusiasts’ access to lands and waters.”

Many areas and outdoor activities would be subject to new permitting criteria, public comment periods, public meetings, and increased potential for lawsuits by Outside environmental groups. Areas and activities potentially affected:
– Nearly all waters in Alaska, potentially including coastal marine waters
– Landing small planes on lakes, river beds, and along the coast of Alaska
– Crossing streams, rivers or lakes in boats or all-terrain vehicles
– Access to boat launches, docks, river banks and special areas
– Any onshore activity that affects areas in close proximity to waters that may have fish”

Our Take: This would be disastrous for those who love to fish, hunt and trap.

Fisheries Managers, Scientists and Regulators:
Randy Bates, Ed Fogels, Kerry Howard, Thomas E. Irwin, Bill Jeffress, Doug Vincent Lang, Bob Loeffler, Ginny Litchfield, Slim Morstad and Marty K. Rutherford:

“Ballot Measure 1 replaces Alaska’s scientific process for identifying, studying and permitting fish habitat with new and untested regulations. Ballot Measure 1 proposes a system that is unworkable, unmanageable and unaffordable.”

Our Take: Alaska is recognized for its current permitting system around the country and the world. Replacing that system with something that is vague and confusing will not improve the current system, nor will it protect salmon.

Labor Unions:
Vince Beltrami, President, AFL-CIO:

“Ballot Measure 1 is wrong for Alaska and is bad for jobs. It’s that simple,”

Our Take: We couldn’t agree more.