Tariff Tango: Alaska’s Economic Waltz

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Specter of Trump Tariffs Spurs Interest in US Gas Contracts
Stephen Stapczynski, Anna Shiryaevskaya, and Ruth Liao, Bloomberg, January 30, 2025

  • Trump sets his sights on exporting more natural gas overseas
  • Risky plan bets countries will buy US fuel to avoid tariffs

President Donald Trump’s high stakes bid to use natural gas exports as leverage to expand US influence in Europe and Asia appears to be gaining early traction.

Government officials and energy executives from countries such as India, Kuwait and Japan have been holding talks about procuring more US gas, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The strategy, however, carries a significant risk. If Trump levies tariffs against China or other nations that balk against buying more LNG, he could drive them away from buying from US producers altogether.

The move to lock in American supply contracts began shortly after Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory, more than two months ahead of his actual swearing in, said the people, who requested anonymity discussing private matters.

He has threatened the European Union with tariffs multiple times if the bloc doesn’t purchase more from the US. Buyers from South Korea to Vietnam are considering procuring more American gas to avoid crippling trade levies.

“His threat to link EU tariffs to LNG purchases marks a stark departure from market-based principles,” said Claudio Steuer, a veteran energy consultant. The potential levies shift the US position on LNG from competitive pricing to “politically driven trade that could undermine long-term market confidence,” he said.

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A major Alaska mine could end up in the crossfire of Trump’s trade war with Canada
Max Graham, Northern Journal, January 31, 2025

Teck’s Red Dog mine in Northwest Alaska supplies the U.S. with zinc and germanium — but only after those minerals get processed in Canada.

Canadian officials have been scrambling in recent weeks to convince President Donald Trump to abandon his threat of sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports.

One point of leverage? Alaska’s Red Dog mine.

Red Dog — a huge open-pit operation in Northwest Alaska — is the largest zinc mine in the world, and a major U.S. source of both zinc and a little-known but essential byproduct, germanium. 

But before those materials wind up in American products, they get refined in Canada, then sent back to the U.S. 

Trump’s 25% across-the-board tariff, which is set to go into effect on Feb. 1, could apply to those zinc and germanium imports, as well as a slew of other mine products and many other goods flowing south from Canada. 

“The cross-border nature of that supply chain means that it will be heavily impacted,” said Gracelin Baskaran, a mining economist who directs a critical minerals security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C.

Teck Resources, the Vancouver-based multinational company that operates Red Dog, is Canada’s only producer of germanium, according to a corporate spokesperson. 

Germanium is one of dozens of minerals that U.S. officials have labeled as “critical” to national security and the economy. The metalloid is used in fiber optics, computer chips, and night-vision equipment.

Some analysts have warned that a trade war with Canada could hurt efforts to bolster a domestic mineral supply chain in the midst of another trade war, with China. 

Historically, the U.S. has depended on China for germanium and other minerals used in electronics, weapons, and energy infrastructure. But that country banned exports of germanium and two other minerals to the United States in December. 

“The reality is, we don’t have a rich set of alternate supply sources,” said Baskaran. 

Red Dog is one of two mines in the U.S. that produce germanium, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The other, in Tennessee, refines its concentrate at a nearby zinc smelter. In Utah and Oklahoma, companies also produce germanium through recycling.

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