Market Might: Steering Coal and Fuel Investments

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Today’s Key Takeaways: Count on Alaska coal! Insurers increase investment in fossil fuels. LNG supply chains were disrupted. America’s Alaskan Arctic ambassador.

NEWS OF THE DAY:

Alaska natural gas crunch is increasing demand for a traditional fuel — coal
James Brooks, Alaska Beacon, September 24, 2024

With cheap gas-fired power now unavailable, the biggest utility in Fairbanks has shelved plans to shut down one of its coal-fired plants

Southcentral Alaska’s natural gas crunch is boosting demand for coal-fired power hundreds of miles inland, a sign that a looming supply crisis will have far-reaching consequences across Alaska.

In a late-August filing with the state’s utility regulator, the electrical cooperative for Fairbanks said it had signed a six-year contract with Usibelli Coal Mine to supply Healy 2, a troubled coal-fired power plant. 

Until February, Fairbanks’ cooperative, Golden Valley Electric Association, had planned to shut down Healy 2 because of its high maintenance and operating costs.

“The greater concern now is that the natural gas shortage in the Cook Inlet will worsen, resulting in a potentially critical situation for the Alaska Railbelt utilities starting in 2027,” GVEA said in the filing.

Since 2022, the largest natural gas supplier in Southcentral Alaska has warned about an impending supply crunch for the region. 

Natural gas is the principal source of home heating and electricity in Anchorage and the surrounding area, and Cook Inlet has ample supplies of underground gas, but gas-sellers have failed to drill enough new wells to keep up with demand. 

Experts expect that by the end of the decade, there won’t be enough natural gas to meet demand. 

The effects of that crisis stretch from Homer to Fairbanks and Delta Junction, encompassing more than two-thirds of Alaska’s residents.

“It’s not just a Southcentral issue. It certainly impacts us here up in Fairbanks as well,” said Ashley Bradish, GVEA’s director of external affairs.

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OIL:

Insurers State Farm and Berkshire Boost Investments in Fossil Fuels
Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.Com, September 25, 2024

While many insurers have reduced their investments in fossil fuel companies, State Farm, the largest U.S. home and auto insurer, and Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance companies have boosted their investments in oil and gas firms over the past decade, an analysis by The Wall Street Journal showed on Wednesday.

Fossil fuel financing and insurance have come under scrutiny in recent years as ESG policies have become mainstream for many investors.

The Journal has now analyzed annual filings of insurers’ investments in stocks and bonds obtained from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, a non-governmental organization that supports U.S. insurance regulators.

Between 2014 and 2023, State Farm and Berkshire’s insurers boosted their investments in oil and gas firms, even if more than half of the 236 property-and-casualty insurers in the Journal’s analysis reduced their spending on stocks and bonds issued by fossil fuel companies.

State Farm, which has invested billions of U.S. dollars in stocks and bonds of companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Diamondback Energy, has raised the share of fossil fuel investments in its $142.7 billion portfolio to 3.6% in 2023, up from 2.6% back in 2014, the Journal’s analysis found.

Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance firms, for their part, reported they spent $39.9 billion on fossil fuels stocks and bonds in 2023. This has raised the share of investments in fossil fuels to more than a fifth of their overall $183 billion in holdings, according to the Journal’s analysis.

The big spending on fossil fuels from Berkshire Hathaway is not surprising, considering Warren Buffett’s bet on Occidental, in which his conglomerate has heavily invested over the past year.

As a result of the rising fossil fuel investments by Berkshire Hathaway and State Farm, the overall exposure of the U.S. property-and-casualty insurance industry to fossil fuels rose to 4.4% of portfolios in 2023. This compares with 3.8% of investments in portfolios in fossil fuels in 2014, the WSJ analysis found.

GAS:

Microtheme LNG Supply:  Sanctions and Geopolitical Tensions Disrupting Russian LNG Supply Chains

Key Developments:

  • Russian LNG Vessel Pioneer: The sanctioned Russian LNG ship Pioneer is navigating through the Suez Canal for the first time, aiming to reach Asia via Yemeni waters. This marks a significant move as it is the first full LNG cargo attempting this route since disruptions began due to Houthi militant activities backed by Iran.
  • Arctic LNG 2 Challenges: Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project faces severe constraints with early ice build-up limiting export routes. US sanctions have restricted access to ice-class tankers, forcing reliance on lighter vessels and delaying cargo loadings. The potential shutdown of Arctic LNG 2 due to ongoing sanctions poses a threat to Russia’s LNG export ambitions.
  • Impact on Japan’s LNG Supply: US sanctions on Arctic LNG 2 have curtailed supply options for Japanese companies like Mitsui and Jogmec, who hold stakes in the project. Additionally, future sanctions on Russia’s Sakhalin-2 plant could further constrain Japan’s LNG supply, necessitating diversification of sources.

From LNG Global, September 25, 2024

POLITICS:

For the first time, America has an Arctic ambassador, and he’s Alaskan
Liz Ruskin, Alaska Public Media, September 24, 2024

The U.S. Senate has confirmed Michael Sfraga of Fairbanks to be the nation’s first ambassador-at-large for the Arctic.

The vote was 55-36, with nine Republicans joining Democrats to vote yes. 

Sen. Lisa Murkowski was the chief advocate for creating the ambassador position and Sfraga’s biggest champion in the Senate.

“Mike is probably the most recognized go-to Arctic expert that we have, not just in Alaska, but around the country,” she said, outside the Senate chamber before the vote. “I go to a lot of Arctic convenings. Mike Sfraga is there at all of them.”

His expertise extends to Arctic research, policy, and national security, she said. He’s in Helsinki now for a security conference and Murkowski said he’ll attend another in Warsaw next week.

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