Light at the end of the tunnel for oil? Perplexing trend – climate models get hotter

In News by wp_sysadmin


Oil Markets Will Recover If Shale Sector Gives It A Chance
Dan Eberhart, Forbes, May 12, 2020

It may be challenging to see the light at the end of the tunnel for the U.S. oil industry right now, but some recent developments show a faint light is there. It may just take some time — and willpower — to get there.  Low oil prices and cratering global demand have brought the mighty U.S. shale machine to grinding halt. The number of rigs actively drilling for oil has now dropped to a level not seen since 2009. Across North America, companies have shut-in production faster than most analysts expected. The industry is on pace to take about 1.7 million barrels a day of production off the market by the end of June in response to low prices and full storage tanks.

Arctic Oil to Draw Bids Despite Rout, Interior Chief Predicts
Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Yahoo Finance, May 11, 2020

Bleak crude prices and fuel demand forecasts won’t blunt oil company bidding for Arctic drilling rights, Interior Secretary David Bernhardt said Monday.  Instead, companies are more likely to make offers based on longer-term forecasts and other considerations, Bernhardt said, as his agency weighs a sale this year of oil leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge’s 1.56-million-acre coastal plain.  “I don’t think the bidding would be driven by today’s prices,” Bernhardt said in an interview Monday. “I don’t generally believe that decisions on whether or not to bid in a lease sale are really driven by the near-term dynamics.”


Qatar positioned to risk an LNG battle that could mimic oil’s plunge
Verity Ratcliffe & Anna Shiryaevskaya, World Oil. Com,  May 12, 2020

Hemmed in by weak demand and scarce storage, the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas may soon face a stark choice: curb output or ignite a battle for market share that has the potential — just as in the oil market — to turn gas prices negative.  Qatar began in February redirecting LNG cargoes away from Asia, where the coronavirus was hobbling sales, and sending them instead to northwestern Europe. That quick fix didn’t last, as the pandemic soon engulfed Europe’s biggest economies and left Qatar struggling for places to park unsold cargoes.

MINING – Tax Incentives to buy rare earth elements in U.S. 

Ted Cruz seeks to end US dependence on China for rare earth metals
Mining.Com, May 12, 2020

Senator Ted Cruz said he plans to introduce legislation on Tuesday that aims to end U.S. reliance on China for rare earth elements used in the manufacturing of products including consumer electronics, electric vehicles and fighter planes.  The bill is part of a push in Congress to shift supply chains, particularly in industries critical for national defense, away from China and back toward the U.S.

POLITICS – A perplexing trend emerging

Climate models got hotter. Why they might be overshooting
Chelsea Harvey, E & E News, May 12, 2020

One of the world’s biggest efforts to study climate change is underway — and it’s happening behind the screens of powerful computers.  Research teams around the world are working to develop the next generation of climate models. Known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CMIP, it’s a coordinated, international effort to create suites of ever-more-advanced models for use in climate research. There’s a new effort every few years or so, typically timed around an upcoming report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The latest generation of models — CMIP6 — is in progress right now.  So far, teams around the world have completed about 40 new models. Dozens more could be on the way. And the results to date are promising — scientists are hopeful that many of the new models will better simulate certain aspects of the earth system.