Journey to Ambler. Lights Out Adventure?

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Today’s Key Takeaways:  Can AK expect another oil and gas boom? China still driving oil demand growth. Are rolling blackouts back for urban Alaska? Trump reinstates Ambler road permits. Alaska legislature by the numbers.

NEWS OF THE DAY:

Will President Trump’s energy policies bring another oil & gas boom to Alaska?
Lauren Maxwell, Alaska’s News Source, January 21, 2025

Reactions differ to “drill baby drill”

President Donald Trump has pledged to make it easier to develop energy projects, particularly in Alaska.

His executive order — Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential — undoes many of the protections put in place by the Biden administration and orders agency heads to rescind, revoke or revise policies or regulations that hinder development and production of the natural resources located on both federal and state lands in Alaska.

The order includes the prioritization of the development of a liquid natural gas pipeline and the removal of Biden-era bans on oil and gas exploration on the coastal plain of ANWR, as well as millions of acres of federal land.

The order rescinds the rejection of a right-of-way permit to build a road through wilderness in the Ambler mining district and looks to repeal the Roadless Rule that limits logging in the Tongass National Forest in Southeast Alaska.

Trump’s move to unlock energy resources in the state is getting praise from all three members of Alaska’s congressional delegation and scorn from many conservation groups who are vowing to fight it.

“Trump just can’t wave a magic wand and make these things happen,” according to Cooper Freeman, Alaska Director for the Center for Biological Diversity, which is based in Homer.

Cooper said conservation groups are banding together to challenge the president’s actions.

“We have decades of experience fighting these sort of assaults, and whether through environmental review processes or court challenges, we are going to be working really hard to make sure these wild ecosystems remain healthy and thriving,” Freeman said.

In an interview Tuesday, Alaskan Sen. Dan Sullivan called President Trump’s actions a good day for Alaska, noting it was the only executive order the president issued Monday that focused on a single state.

“Having the federal government as a partner and an opportunity, not an obstacle, not declaring a war on Alaska — which Biden did — is a really big thing and good thing starting out with the new administration,” Sullivan said.

That thought was echoed by Kara Moriarty, the president of the Alaska Oil and Gas Association, who said Trump’s actions add clarity for oil and gas developers, especially in the National Petroleum Reserve.

“He has been very clear that he wants America to be energy dominant,” Moriarty said. “We heard that in the confirmation hearings last week of his Secretary of Energy and Interior nominees, and we stand ready to responsibly develop our resources.”

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OIL:

Aramco CEO Sees ‘Good’ China Oil Demand Driving Growth
Joumanna Bercetche, Anthony Di Paola, Bloomberg/Rigzone, January 22, 2025

China is still driving growth in global oil demand, the head of Saudi Aramco said, dismissing concerns about peaking consumption in the world’s biggest energy user. 

“We still see good demand coming out of China,” Aramco’s Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said in a Bloomberg television interview in Davos. The country, along with India, make up about 40% of the rise in global consumption and, “demand is increasing year on year.”

Aramco has long been positive about demand in China, its largest market and a target for major investments, even as the Asian nation was sluggish to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Nasser’s said back in October that he was bullish on China after a series of government stimulus measures aimed at reviving the economy.

The optimism contrasts with signals of a slowdown, with even the country’s largest energy producer, China National Petroleum Corp., predicting oil demand may cease growing after 2025 as a shift toward electric vehicles gathers pace. Nasser said that while the EV push will erode gasoline demand, the country’s appetite for chemicals produced from oil will keep expanding.

“Even with the transition and going to electric vehicles, you need oil as a feedstock to produce the materials that would be required for any transition,” Nasser said. “The growth is still there.”

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GAS:

Rolling blackouts could loom for urban Alaska as natural gas crunch intensifies
Nathaniel Herz, Northern Journal, January 21, 2205

Homer Electric Association, which serves much of the Kenai Peninsula, recently announced that it secured an “interruptible” gas agreement for the next year — meaning that it could experience a shortfall of the fuel during a cold snap.

Two urban Alaska utilities and the state’s consumer protection attorneys are warning about the risk of rolling blackouts amid an intensifying shortage of natural gas — the fuel used to generate the majority of the region’s electricity.

Such blackouts aren’t imminent, officials said, and likely would only develop in a cold snap or other scenarios that test urban Alaska’s grid.

But the risk appears to be rising, stemming from diminishing supplies of natural gas. That fuel, in 2022, generated nearly two-thirds of the electricity used on the Railbelt, the area of urban Alaska stretching from the Kenai Peninsula through Anchorage and north to Fairbanks and the Interior.

Three years ago, the region’s leading gas producer, Hilcorp, warned that it would not renew binding supply contracts with utilities when they expired — and now, with the first of those expiration dates arriving, the grid is starting to show signs of stress.

For the next year, the 25,000 members of Homer Electric Association, which is based on the Kenai Peninsula, will be depending on what’s known as an “interruptible” gas supply — meaning that the seller isn’t contractually obligated to provide it in the event of a shortage. 

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MINING:

Trump wastes no time on the Ambler Road
Shane Lasley, North of 60 Mining News, January 21, 2025

Reinstating Ambler Road permits was part of the “Unleashing Alaska” executive order signed by President Trump on first day back in office.

With the stroke of a pen on his first day back in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to reverse the previous administration’s decision to revoke permits required to build a road to the Ambler Mining District, along with a series of other Biden era initiatives that are significantly impacting resource development in Alaska.

The “Unleashing Alaska’s extraordinary resource potential” executive order signed by Trump shortly after being sworn into office reflects a list of sweeping changes requested by Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy.

A 28-page “Alaska Priorities for Federal Transition” report sent to the incoming President’s transition team in December detailed actions Trump should take to reverse what the Dunleavy administration characterized as a “four-year assault on Alaska’s statehood and economy” by the Biden administration.

The Unleashing Alaska executive order touted the “abundant and largely untapped supply of natural resources” that America’s Last Frontier State has to offer but said “an immediate end to the assault on Alaska’s sovereignty and its ability to responsibly develop these resources” is required to unleash this extraordinary potential.

“Unlocking this bounty of natural wealth will raise the prosperity of our citizens while helping to enhance our Nation’s economic and national security for generations to come,” the executive order signed by Trump reads.

Alaska’s delegation hailed the signing of the order as a major win for the 49th State.

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POLITICS:  

The Alaska Legislature by the numbers
Iris Samuels, Anchorage Daily News, January 21, 2025

Alaska’s 60 legislators come from all corners of the state, and convened in Juneau on Tuesday They include teachers, fishermen, pilots, a hunting guide, realtors, engineers, attorneys, veterans, a pharmacist, a medical doctor, a physician assistant, a nurse, a shopkeeper, an insurance broker and a professor.

Alaska’s 60 legislators come from all corners of the state, and convened in Juneau on Tuesday as the 34th legislative session kicked off.

Here’s a breakdown of the Legislature, by the numbers.

57.8

The average age of Senate members, in years.

51.4

The average age of House members, in years.

83

The age, in years, of the oldest member — Sen. Gary Stevens of Kodiak.

28

The age, in years, of the youngest members — Rep. Genevieve Mina and Rep. David Nelson, both of Anchorage.

25

The number of lawmakers who were born in Alaska, including four who were born in territorial Alaska, before it became a state.

1987

The year when Sen. Lyman Hoffman of Bethel first started serving in the Legislature. With 38 years under his belt, he is the longest-serving member.

11

The number of legislators who are serving their first term this year, including 10 in the House and one in the Senate.

6.5

The average length of service, in years, among Alaska’s current House and Senate members. In the House, the average is closer to four. In the Senate, it’s 11.

27

Number of women in the Legislature. The Alaska House will have a female majority this year, for the first time in the state’s history. In the Senate, meanwhile, only a quarter of members are women.

84,000

The annual salary that lawmakers will earn this year, in dollars.

307

The per diem reimbursement rate, in dollars, that lawmakers from communities other than Juneau can claim while the Legislature is in session.

121

The maximum length of the regular legislative session, in days, as set in the Alaska Constitution.