IEA and OPEC Disagree on Peak Oil Demand Predictions.  More Time for NPR-A.

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Today’s Key Takeaways: IEA vs. OPEC on peak oil demand predictions.  Alaska delegation asks for more time on NPR-A comment period.  It’s hard to quit gas.  Doyon cancels land-access agreement for Ambler Road project


The IEA Reiterates Its Peak Oil Demand Prediction
Irina Slav, OilPrice.Com, October 24, 2023

  • In its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency has reiterated its claim that crude oil, natural gas, and coal will peak before 2030.
  • The agency sees the emergence of a new clean energy economy as providing hope for the way forward, emphasizing the economic case for clean energy technologies.
  • The report focuses on the importance of resilience and energy security, particularly due to the geopolitical developments currently disrupting energy markets.

Demand for oil, natural gas, and coal is set to peak before 2030, which undermines the case for increasing investment in fossil fuels.

This is one of the outtakes from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, released earlier today.

While the agency does admit that investment in fossil fuels will remain necessary, it claims the growth era is over.

When Birol first mentioned peak oil, gas, and coal, he prompted an immediate reaction from OPEC, which slammed the head of the IEA for making unwise predictions that could threaten the world’s energy supply security.

“Such narratives only set the global energy system up to fail spectacularly. It would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world,” OPEC secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said in September.

The release of the World Energy Outlook may now prompt a similar response from OPEC, which forecast recently that demand for oil is going to continue rising at least until 2045.


Alaska delegation asks for extended comment period on NPR-A
Jake Barnwell, Fairbanks Daily News Miner, October 24, 2023

All three members of Alaska’s congressional delegation are asking the Biden administration to extend a public comment period on management changes for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) by 80 days.



Italy’s LNG deal with Qatar shows how hard it is to quit gas
Gavin Macguire, Reuters, October 23, 2023

Italy’s ENI SpA (ENI.MI) signed a deal this week to purchase up to 1 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually from QatarEnergy for the next 27 years, locking in gas flows to Southern Europe’s largest economy until at least 2050.

Gas accounted for around 51% of Italy’s total electricity generation in 2022, making the country the most gas-reliant among Europe’s largest economies, data from Ember shows.

Italy is also overwhelmingly dependent on imports for gas supplies, with over 95% of the country’s gas shipped in from overseas in 2022, according to the Energy Institute.

Its high dependence on gas imports has spurred Italy to accelerate electricity capacity construction from renewable sources such as solar and wind, which expanded by 11% and 5% respectively in 2022 to exceed the growth of other sources.

However, even with record gains in clean electricity output, natural gas has remained Italy’s dominant source of electricity this year and looks set to remain the bedrock of the country’s power system for decades longer despite expected further increases in renewable power over the coming years.



Doyon cancels land access for Alaska development agency, a barrier for the Ambler Road project
Alex DeMarban, Anchorage Daily News, October 23, 2023

A regional Alaska Native corporation is canceling a land-access agreement with a state development agency, a move that raises questions about how the 200-mile Ambler Road project in Northwest Alaska will be built.

Doyon, the largest private landholder in Alaska, cited “poor treatment” as a factor in a sharply worded letter outlining its decision to cancel the agreement with the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority. The three-year agreement ends in April. It has allowed for contractors to conduct studies needed to support the project’s development on Doyon land.

Doyon does not plan to extend the agreement or enter a new land-access agreement with the state agency, said the one-page letter, signed by Doyon CEO Aaron Schutt. Doyon is sending the letter in advance of the termination date so the state agency has time to plan for next summer’s work, the letter said.

The letter also expresses Doyon’s disappointment with the state agency’s actions on a separate, North Slope oil field project that Doyon has also been involved in.

The letter, dated Oct. 17 and addressed to Randy Ruaro, executive director for AIDEA, leaves open the possibility of future discussions with the state agency.

In a statement emailed to a reporter on Monday, the state agency said Ruaro and staff have held “several respectful meetings” with Doyon and the Native corporations’ shareholders in the communities nearest to the proposed road.

“Significant progress has been made with communities and Tribes regarding the project and benefits of jobs and economic development,” said the statement from Josie Wilson, a spokeswoman with the agency. “It is unfortunate and frankly unfair that Doyon is tying issues not involving the Ambler Road to its support for the Ambler Road. AIDEA will remain focused on advancing the project and working directly with communities and Tribes closest to the project to mitigate impacts and maximize benefits.”