Today’s Key Takeaways: AIDEA could start work in ANWR this winter. Thailand plan to import AKLNG. China could expedite rare earth permit approvals. Oil prices surge on US/China tariff truce.
OIL:
Arctic refuge oil exploration could begin as soon as this winter, court documents indicate
James Brooks, Alaska Beacon, May 9, 2025
Alaska’s state-owned investment bank could get permission to start oil exploration work in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as soon as the third quarter of this year, according to court documents filed Friday in Anchorage.
In a status report on a series of lawsuits seeking to block oil development in the refuge, attorneys representing the U.S. Department of the Interior say the agency intends to issue a new document known as a “record of decision” that would cover oil and gas leases sold by the agency in 2020.
The Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, the state’s publicly owned investment bank, was the leading bidder on several oil and gas tracts during that 2020 lease sale.
The Biden administration suspended, then canceled the results of that sale, held in the last days of the first Trump administration, but a U.S. District Court judge overturned that cancellation.
The leases remain suspended, but the status report — and a second one filed by AIDEA attorneys — shows the second Trump administration planning to reverse that suspension and reinstate the leases.
“Federal Defendants indicate that they are considering lifting the suspension, which could result in activities taking place pursuant to the leases in the near future,” wrote attorneys representing the plaintiffs, several environmental and Alaska Native groups that have filed suit to block development. “Given the President’s and Secretary’s direction concerning resource development on the Coastal Plain, lifting the suspension is likely.”
That would clear a path for AIDEA to begin seismic testing and other work necessary before oil drilling.
On Alaska’s North Slope, most exploration activities take place in winter, when the region’s tundra is frozen and travel is easier. Federal action by this fall could permit work in the winter of 2025-2026.
Attorneys for the federal government and AIDEA have asked the U.S. District Court to place a hold legal on proceedings through Sept. 30.
Plaintiffs, meanwhile, are asking for a prompt trial, where they will attempt to prove that the federal government acted incorrectly by opening the refuge to oil and gas leasing in 2020.
GAS:
Thailand plans to import up to 5 Mt/year of US LNG from the Alaska LNG project
Enerdata, May 12, 2025
The Ministry of Energy of Thailand has asked national companies PTT and Electricity Generating (EGCO) to initiate discussions with the US Government regarding an LNG development in the US State of Alaska, which could see Thailand import between 3 Mt/year and 5 Mt/year of US LNG.
Thailand’s potential involvement in the US$44 billion Alaska LNG venture could happen through investments in gas exploration and production and related infrastructure for the project. Alaska LNG’s three subprojects are a 1,299 km pipeline, a 20 Mt/year LNG export terminal in Nikiski, and a North Slope-based CCS plant to remove and store 7 MtCO2/year.
In March 2025, the Taiwanese state-owned energy group CPC signed an agreement with Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) to buy LNG and invest in the AGDC project in the US. In addition, Alaska’s Governor held talks with South Korean energy and steel companies for partnerships on the LNG development project.
MINING:
China may expedite US rare earth permit approvals after trade truce: Reuters
Mining.Com, May 12, 2025
The US-China trade truce may give American companies an easier time in gaining Beijing’s approval for rare earth export permits, though a complete removal of export restrictions remains unlikely, Reuters reports.
For years, the US has relied heavily on China for its supply of rare earth minerals used in a wide array of modern technologies. Between 2020-2023, about 70% of America’s rare earth imports came from China, government data shows.
In April, in retaliation against sweeping tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, China added seven rare earth minerals and related products to its export control list. This decision meant Chinse exporters need to apply for licenses before selling outside the country, especially to the US.
However, with Monday’s announcement of a 90-day trade truce between the world’s two biggest economies, China’s Ministry of Commerce could expedite its approval process for the export permits, which in theory take 45 days, industry sources cited by Reuters said.
POLITICS:
Oil Prices Surge As U.S. and China Agree to Tariff Cuts
Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com, May 12, 2025
- The United States and China have agreed to temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products, resulting in a significant jump in oil prices.
- Both WTI and Brent crude saw increases as the market reacted positively to the news of easing trade tensions.
- Discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials will continue to address economic and trade relations following the initial tariff suspension.
Oil jumped by 3% early on Monday after the United States and China agreed to slash tariffs on each other, easing concerns about global trade and the economy.
As of 6:52 a.m. on Monday, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was up by 3.13% at $62.93. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, moved up above $65 per barrel and traded at $65.79, up by 2.93% on the day.
The market was expecting on Monday the outcome of the initial U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva this weekend.
Early on Monday, the White House announced that the United States and China will each lower tariffs by 115% while retaining an additional 10% tariff. Other U.S. measures will remain in place.
The U.S. and China will suspend the tariffs for 90 days except the 10% baseline rate.