Legislative Forecast: It’s like déjà vu all over again

October 23, 2015 | Posted in : News

Governor Bill Walker called the special Legislative session to address two issues: purchasing TransCanada’s ownership stake in the AKLNG project and implementing a new tax on natural gas reserves.

Trans Canada Buy Out: Can we afford this?

On the TransCanada buyout, the issue ultimately boils down to what’s actually in any agreement. On one hand, the idea of taking over management of the state’s 25 percent stake in the gas treatment plant (GTP) and the pipeline seems like a good idea: as it means more revenue for Alaska. On the other hand, with its 3+billion dollar budget shortfall, Alaskans should be asking can we afford the potential price tag of more than $108 million as oil prices continue to plummet? Additionally, have all of the risks to this investment been investigated?

The administration and the Legislature should work on finding a responsible solution to the budgetary shortfalls that considers what’s in the best interests of both the state’s short- and long-term needs.

Gas Reserves Tax: bad idea then, dangerous idea now.

On the gas reserves tax, this issue was soundly rejected by Alaskans the previous two times it was considered in the last 13 years. There’s much still to be learned about the governor’s proposal, but from what he’s said publicly, this move appears to be a gambit for more ‘leverage’ in the negotiations with the other partners in the Alaska LNG project.

The governor continues to say he wants to work with the partners and is committed to this project, but a punitive new tax doesn’t get us there. It’s been tried before, and failed.

Let’s look at the details of previous attempts.

Jim Whittaker, chief of staff to the governor wrote the original gas reserves tax legislation in March 2001, when he was serving as a state representative. Mr. Whitaker withdrew that bill in May 2002. Mr. Whitaker tried again in 2006 as mayor of Fairbanks, to take the issue directly to the people of Alaska through a ballot measure. That measure failed 66 – 34 percent, and was universally panned by Alaskans from Barrow to Kenai.

Should we expect anything different in 2015? Until we see the actual legislation, we can’t answer the question. If the tax is similar to the 2006 ballot initiative, then, it’s nothing new, just the old idea wrapped up in new packaging. The governor may not be aware that this will hinder negotiating a deal rather than being a help to negotiations.

To his credit, this governor has shared our vision of exporting Alaska’s gas, and creating jobs in state. Working with the Alaska LNG partners to advance that project is in all our collective best interests if we’re going to get the economy growing, the budget deficits closed, and protect our futures.

Stay tuned.

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Shell Operations Cease In the Chukchi Sea As Regulatory Environment Becomes More Murky; DOI Cancels Lease Sale

October 23, 2015 | Posted in : News

As the Polar Pioneer pulls out of Dutch Harbor for the last time in the foreseeable future, we are left to wonder what untapped resources, jobs, and future is being left behind in Alaska?

Unfortunately the decision for Shell to withdraw isn’t cut and dry. We can’t point to a lack of oil to blame for this loss. In fact the USGS believes there still remains up to 23 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, where Shell maintains leases through the 2020s. So why pull out now, after spending $7 billion?

Shell said though the Arctic remained important for the company, the recent results were disappointing, and there were still issues with regulation to deal with.

Even though no decisions have yet been made about Shell’s Alaskan workforce, spokeswoman Megan Baldino said the pullout would mean “lower staff” in the future.

We must make sure that Shell is not the first domino. Instead it’s a wakeup call for our state officials; just as quickly as a rig can appear, it can just as easily sail away.

Breaking News: On top of Shell’s departure, DOI today announced that it cancelled planned lease sales for  2016 in the Chukchi Sea and  2017 in the Beaufort Sea, using Shell’s departure as a main reason.

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No New Hirings as Armstrong, Repsol Renegotiate Colville River Delta Agreement

October 23, 2015 | Posted in : News

As many as 500 Alaskans will no longer be contracted this winter for work on the Slope according to an Alaska Dispatch News report.

Repsol and Armstrong Oil and Gas have decided to “strategically re-align their interest” in the Colville River Delta, even though two exploratory wells resulted in a “significant” discovery, according to a statement from Armstrong.

But this is just the tip of the iceberg.

A realignment and postponement of drilling activities isn’t just impacting the 500 Alaska families now without work this winter. It’s impacting many more than that.

A postponement of exploratory drilling is a delayed shipment that now sits in a warehouse all winter, it’s a logistics company without work that was once guaranteed, it’s suppliers now faced with surplus inventory.

Too often the real cost to business owners and employees within the supply chain aren’t even thought about. These projects are real work for thousands of Alaskans across the state, on the Slope, in the Interior, and in the Tidewater. When one of us is affected, we are all affected.

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Negative Credit Outlook for Alaska Should Put the State on Notice: Get It Right Or Risk Losing It All

October 22, 2015 | Posted in : News

The facts are simple, the state needs credit in order to do business. But right now as oil prices around the globe continue to slide, there is less and less of a cushion to hide behind.

Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services lowered the outlook for Alaska from stable to negative back in August. And now, our lawmakers only have one year to fix our fiscal situation before the downgrades accelerate.

So what does this mean for us?

Unfortunately it’s not a good situation, with not much time to fix. Without good credit, the state faces a significant challenge to attract creditors, which make it possible for our state to invest in large scale infrastructure projects, be it roads, dams, or even mega-projects like AlaskaLNG.

Right now we’re at least $3 billion in the hole. And how are we paying that? From the Constitutional Budget Reserve?  At this rate, even that won’t last long. Which leaves us only with access to the Earnings Reserve of the Permanent Fund . By the time that would be approved legislatively or by a vote of the people, we would be a long way down the rabbit hole.

So we’ve got a choice to make. Fix it now, or risk our economic future.

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