Today’s Key Takeaways: Will tariffs lift oil prices or tank them? DOE set on freeing LNG from regulatory barriers to exports. There’s a new mine in town- Juneau.
OIL:
Tariffs Are Bound to Hit the Oil Patch. It Could Lift Prices, or Tank Them.
Avi Salzmann, Barron’s, April 1, 2025
Oil executives and investors are on hold as they consider their next moves in the face of President Donald Trump’s potential transformation of global trade.
Energy products are the U.S.’s biggest exports and among its biggest imports, putting them in the front lines of a potential trade war. But Trump’s shifting policies make it difficult to gauge what might happen to demand and prices after he unveils his global package of levies on Wednesday.
On the one hand, tariffs could cause the global economy to contract, reducing demand for energy and causing prices to slump. Goldman Sachs cut its target for growth in U.S. gross domestic product by half a percentage point because of tariffs. Analysts there expect economic trouble in the U.S. and Europe to shave about $1 a barrel off oil prices.
On the other, Trump may use tariffs to restrict the flow of oil from countries such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. That would cause prices to rise. Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil likely would force gasoline prices higher in the U.S.
Oil prices are in a comfortable range around $70 per barrel, but investors clearly aren’t at ease. The policy uncertainty is causing them to step back: It has “weighed on broad participation in the oil space,” wrote RBC Capital Markets strategist Brian Leisen in a research note.
Or as another analyst wrote about energy and geopolitics a few weeks ago: “Make it make sense.”
For investors, it doesn’t help that oil fundamentals are already bearish. The market is on the brink of oversupply, and OPEC just decided to start producing more crude.
GAS:
US throws off the regulatory shackles of red tape snags to unlock LNG export bonanza
Melissa Cavcic, Offshore Energy, April 2, 2025
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has set its mind on freeing its liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry from the burden of regulatory barriers standing in the way of unleashing an LNG export boom by moving beyond the setback it perceives to stem from Biden-era policy requirements.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s action to remove the additional regulatory barriers for requests to LNG export commencement date extensions does not come as a surprise given the Trump administration’s zest to ensure the revival of the oil and gas ‘golden’ age.
The latest step to enable this has led the DOE to rescind a Biden-era policy statement, issued in April 2023, that required authorized LNG exporters to meet stringent criteria before the agency would consider a request to extend a commencement date for an approved project.
Moreover, DOE’s authorizations for natural gas exports to non-free trade agreement (non-FTA) countries usually require exporters to begin exports within seven years of authorization to allow time for the financing and construction of the associated export facility, but authorization holders can request additional time.
MINING:
Canadian company pushes forward with plans for new gold mine in Juneau
Clarise Larson, KTOO, March 31, 2025
A Canadian company announced last week it’s starting multiple environmental studies to explore a possible new gold mine in Juneau.
The announcement comes as the Trump administration pushes to ramp up mineral production in the U.S and as gold prices are seeing a historic surge in value.
The project is called the New Amalga Gold Deposit and it’s being led by Grande Portage Resources, a Vancouver-based mineral exploration company.
It was formerly called the Herbert Gold Project and it’s proposed to be located near Herbert Glacier, about 15 miles north of downtown Juneau. It lies within Juneau’s historic gold belt, an area that has produced millions of ounces of gold since it was discovered in the 1800s.
Ian Klassen, the president and CEO of the company, says the studies are critical to advancing the project forward and making it “Alaska’s next great gold mine.”
“We’ve been excited about this project for a long, long time,” he said. “It’s one of the largest, richest undeveloped deposits around.”
Grande Portage has been drilling on federal mining claims in Tongass National Forest on and off since 2010 and it’s already completed five years’ worth of baseline environmental water studies. When the company first began drilling more than a decade ago, it faced pushback from local environmental groups and advocates.
Guy Archibald is the executive director of the Southeast Alaska Indigenous Transboundary Commission. He said the proposed mining project is still very conceptual and it’s difficult to know how impactful it could be on Juneau residents.
“Mining is inherently destructive. What level of damage is considered reasonable? Because federal law only bans unreasonable levels of damage,” he said. “What level here are they going to consider to be reasonable, and does that align with the people in Juneau’s vision for their particular environment. A lot remains to be seen here.”
Mining already plays a major role in Juneau socially and economically. The city has strong ties to the largest silver mine in the nation, Hecla Greens Creek Mine on Admiralty Island. There’s also Coeur Alaska Inc.’s Kensington Mine, a gold mine located about 45 miles north of town.
While there are still many unknowns about the project, the company has begun to put conceptual plans in place. One involves sending the ore off-site to be processed at a third-party facility. That would allow it to operate while avoiding the need for chemical processing or tailings storage facilities at the site. Tailings are the ground-up rock that’s left over after the extraction of valuable metals like gold, zinc and silver.
POLITICS:
Interior Secretary Burgum Reverses Biden’s Climate Policies in Alaska
Institute for Energy Research, March 31, 2025
Key Takeaways:
- Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is following up on President Trump’s executive order to reduce barriers to energy and mineral development in Alaska, hoping to attract investment, jobs, and infrastructure.
- He is reopening parts of ANWR and NPR-A closed by Biden to oil and gas leasing and lifting barriers to building an LNG pipeline and the Amber District mining road, which would open a mineral-rich region of the state and help lessen dependence upon China.
- Additional access to federal lands for petroleum supplies would help the Trans Alaska Pipeline System, which is currently running at less than 25% of its original capacity due to declining production on state lands at Prudhoe Bay on the North Slope.
- Alaska’s governor and Congressional Delegation have welcomed the change in direction of policies towards their state, and have committed to working with the Trump administration to ensure the policies move forward.