Today’s Key Takeaways: BP’s largest oil discovery in 25 years. Taiwan to AKLNG – 6m tons? Alaska’s copper future. Nova Minerals metallurgical mastery. Why fossil fuels keep winning.
OIL:
BP makes its largest oil and gas discovery in 25 years offshore Brazil
Shadia Nasralla, Yadarisa Shabong, Reuters, August 4, 2025
BP (BP.L), opens new tab has made its largest oil and gas discovery in 25 years offshore Brazil, it said on Monday, in a potential big boost for the British company following its strategic shift away from renewable energy to refocus on fossil fuels.
BP is seeking to bolster oil and gas in its portfolio to regain investor confidence and revive underperforming shares.
It said it planned to create a major new output hub at the Bumerangue discovery in Brazil, which a BP spokesperson said was probably the company’s biggest since Shah Deniz in 1999, a gas and condensate field in the Azeri part of the Caspian Sea.
Shah Deniz, with around 1 trillion cubic metres of gas and 2 billion barrels of condensate initially in place, produced 28 billion standard cubic metres of gas last year, according to BP.
It gave no reserve estimate for the Brazilian block.
“Brazil is an important country for BP, and our ambition is to explore the potential of establishing a material and advantaged production hub in the country,” said Gordon Birrell, BP’s production, and operations chief.
BP shares gained 1.3% by 1107 GMT, outperforming a broader index of European energy companies (.SXEP), opens new tab which was up 0.1%.
This find may well see BP’s upstream portfolio longevity extending well into the 2030s/40s, and it is this that has been the biggest issue and concern,” Bernstein analyst Irene Himona said in a note.
GAS:
Taiwan close to record deal with Alaska for 6 million tons of LNG: Governor
Focus Taiwan, August 4, 2025
Washington/Taipei, Aug. 4 (CNA) Taiwan and Alaska are close to finalizing a deal for Taiwan to purchase 6 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which would mark the largest such sale in Alaska’s history, according to the state’s governor.
“It’s moving to an absolute solid offtake with Taiwan of 6 million tons of gas… Now that 6 million tons from Taiwan is the largest offtake in LNG history in terms of sales,” Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy said at a media event on July 29.
The purchase would account for about 30 percent of the Alaska LNG Project’s planned annual output of 20 million tons. The US$44 billion project involves treating gas on the North Slope, transporting it via a 1,300-kilometer pipeline to Nikiski in southcentral Alaska, and then liquefying it for export.
The Republican governor made the remark in response to a question about whether U.S. tariff concessions could depend on cooperation with the LNG project. “I think those discussions are happening in [Washington] DC with these tariff and trade talks and energy talks. I think those discussions are happening right now,” he said.
Dunleavy said Thailand is also expected to sign a Heads of Agreement for 2 million tons and called on South Korea and other U.S. trade partners in Asia to join the project. “It’s a tremendous opportunity to not only buy gas from, but to invest in [Alaska],” he said.
MINING:
Tariffs, Trump, and Alaska’s copper future
Shane Lasley, North of 60 Mining News, August 1, 2025
Will surging prices ignite a new era of copper mining in Alaska, a state with world-class potential but non-existent production?
With copper prices rocketing to all-time highs – driven by the demands of artificial intelligence, clean energy, electric vehicles, urbanization, and now a 50% import tariff from President Donald Trump – Alaska’s immense but untapped copper deposits are once again in the national spotlight.
On July 25, copper climbed to a record $5.80 per pound, up 44% from the $4.03/lb it commanded at the start of 2025 and double the $2.90/lb price from five years ago, before settling at around $4.40/lb when it was revealed the tariff is only on refined copper. While much of the surge was in anticipation of the steep tariff, the market was already under pressure from rapidly rising global demand.
A recent study by researchers from Cornell University, the University of Queensland, and the University of Wisconsin projects that global mines must produce up to 3 billion metric tons (6.6 trillion lb) of new copper by 2050 to meet the twin goals of supporting developing nations and transitioning to cleaner energy. That’s nearly six times the 2024 global copper output – an “improbable” task without sweeping investment and permitting reform.
“If it comes down to a competition between ‘Are you going to build health care in Africa or are more people going to drive a Tesla?’ I would vote for health care in Africa,” said Adam Simon, a professor of Earth and environmental sciences at the University of Michigan and co-author of the study.
Even modest energy transition scenarios demand unprecedented new supplies of copper – a reality now compounded by the rise of electricity-guzzling AI data centers. The study suggests that copper prices may need to exceed $9.00/lb to support the global buildout of new mines.
The higher prices ignited by human progress and fanned by Trump tariffs position Alaska – a state with world-class copper potential but essentially non-existent production – at a crossroads of policy and demand that could shape a new copper mining era for the state.
Nova Minerals’ Metallurgical Breakthroughs at Estelle Project Reshape Gold Mining Economics in Tier-One Alaska Jurisdiction
Eli Grant, AInvest, August 4, 2025
Nova Minerals is transforming the Estelle Gold Project in Alaska using advanced metallurgical innovations to create a low-cost, high-margin gold producer.
– The company’s three-tiered approach, including X-ray ore sorting, boosts gold recovery by 4.33x while reducing waste and operational costs.
– Heap leaching recovers 68.7% of gold from previously discarded material, extending mine life and enhancing profitability.
– Aligned with U.S. economic priorities, the project also explores antimony, a critical mineral for defense, securing government support.
POLITICS:
The Renewable Illusion: Why Fossil Fuels Keep Winning
Robert Rapier, Forbes, August 1, 2025
In recent years, many optimistic narratives have overstated the impact of renewables on fossil fuel consumption. The reality is more sobering: renewables are not displacing fossil fuels—especially in non-OECD countries and energy-intensive sectors. They’re growing fast, but they’re still playing catch-up with rising global energy demand.
That is a key takeaway from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy. Yes, renewable energy posted impressive gains in 2024. But it still wasn’t enough to bend the curve on global fossil fuel use or carbon emissions.
In 2023, global energy consumption totaled 580 exajoules (EJ), with renewables providing just 29.97 EJ—or 5.2% of the total. By 2024, renewables increased to 32.74 EJ, yet only nudged their global share to 5.5%.
Of the 11.9 EJ growth in total energy demand from 2023 to 2024, renewables supplied just 2.7 EJ—about 23% of the total. Most of the rest came from fossil fuels, with natural gas leading the way at 4.1 EJ. That’s why carbon emissions continued rising in 2024, despite the record-breaking year for renewables.