Today’s Key Takeaways: Looking for oil and gas near the Yukon River. Canadian companies eyeing investment in Alaska’s minerals. Clean energy gutted in senate version of big, beautiful bill.
The Alaska Department of Natural Resources is considering whether or not to open state-owned land near the Yukon River to oil and gas exploration.
In a public notice published in May and renewed June 18, the agency said it “intends to evaluate the acceptability of an oil and gas exploration license proposal for the Yukon Flats area.”
The Yukon Flats cover a vast area of Interior Alaska, and the state’s proposal includes only “unencumbered” state-owned lands, primarily near the Dalton Highway, the town of Livengood, the Steese Highway and the Yukon River town of Circle.
The Yukon Flats are a relatively unexplored region when it comes to oil and gas potential.
Historically, the prospect of oil development in the area has been controversial; the Yukon Flats are home to the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, which is home to large amounts of wildlife.
The refuge is not included in the state proposal, and most of the refuge is a significant distance from the state-owned land being considered for oil and gas exploration.
The state’s exploration licensing program requires a public comment period before the DNR commissioner makes a final determination about whether state lands in the Yukon Flats should be open to exploration.
After that determination, interested explorers would be able to submit license applications that would permit them to conduct seismic surveying and test drilling for oil and gas.
Vancouver, British Columbia, home to dozens of companies searching the world for minerals, has a special interest in the northernmost U.S. state.
On a January evening, dozens of people crammed into a banquet space at the glitzy Pan Pacific Hotel overlooking Vancouver’s waterfront.
Buttoned-up corporate executives mingled with government officials by a wood-paneled bar. Old-school geologists and mineral prospectors buzzed around platters of chicken-and-waffle sliders.
The crowd was united by a passion for mining and — curiously, given the setting outside the U.S. — an abiding interest in the state of Alaska.
It was the final night of Roundup, one of the most anticipated conventions of the year for North American mining companies. Thousands of rock enthusiasts and businessmen had gathered to pitch investors, hear talks about mineral deposits and nerd out over geochemistry.
Organized by the Vancouver-based Association for Mineral Exploration, Roundup isn’t the world’s biggest mining conference. But it’s famous for its emphasis on the earliest stage of mine development: the highly speculative hunt for new sources of minerals.
With a special focus on the geology of western North America, the conference is an especially big deal for companies with prospects in Alaska.
Indeed, the soirée at the Pan Pacific was an annual “Alaska Night” cocktail party, where an eclectic mix of ore-loving northerners clinked beer glasses, sipped Smirnoff and munched on arancini. The mood, like the price of gold, was high.
“There have been a few years where times are glum,” said Robert Retherford, a veteran Alaska geologist. But this year, “the smell” of money “is stronger.”
Alaskans like Retherford make a pilgrimage to Vancouver each January, underscoring a fact little known outside of the industry: The tens of millions of dollars a year that fuel the hunt for Alaska’s minerals flow not from Anchorage or Seattle, but from Canada.
“This is where the money is,” Dave Szumigala, an Alaska geologist who works for the state’s land management agency, said at the Pan Pacific party.
Senate Republicans stunned clean energy developers early Monday by inserting sweeping revisions to President Donald Trump’s $1.2-trillion “One Big, Beautiful Bill” just ahead of floor debate. The last-minute amendments slash wind and solar tax incentives, introduce excise taxes on imported Chinese energy components, and move eligibility criteria from start-date to in-service date, upending financing models across the renewable sector.
At stake is nearly $360 billion in clean energy tax credits passed under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Under the Senate version of the bill, production tax credits for wind and solar will now expire by December 31, 2027, five years earlier than originally planned. Projects that fail to reach full operation by that date will lose access entirely, regardless of prior investment or construction status.
The new language also introduces a 10% excise tax on clean energy equipment containing Chinese-origin critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. Industry executives warn this will hit battery storage hardest and derail domestic solar supply chains still reliant on Asia for polysilicon inputs.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose Nevada battery plants depend on a mix of U.S. and Chinese components, called the bill “utterly insane and destructive,” warning it would “destroy millions of jobs.” Solar and wind developers were left scrambling, with one executive telling Bloomberg the revisions “blindsided” the entire sector.
Despite internal GOP dissent and stalled Medicaid negotiations, the Senate advanced the bill 51–49 in a procedural vote late Sunday. The final Senate floor vote is expected within 72 hours as part of an aggressive push to meet the July 4 deadline set by Trump.
The statement from the U.K.-based oil giant came after The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Shell was holding early-stage talks to acquire BP.
“In response to recent media speculation Shell wishes to clarify that it has not been actively considering making an offer for BP and confirms it has not made an approach to, and no talks have taken place with, BP with regards to a possible offer,” Shell said Thursday.
In light of its statement, Shell said it was now bound by U.K. takeover rules, meaning it can’t make an offer for its peer in the next six months unless it does so with the agreement of BP’s board, if a rival suitor emerges or if there is a material change in circumstances.
A potential combination between the two supermajor oil companies, a group of multinational behemoths that dominate the production of the world’s most important energy sources, could end up as the largest corporate oil deal since the $83 billion megamerger that created Exxon Mobil at the turn of the century. BP has a market value of nearly 58 billion pounds ($79.26 billion), while Shell’s capitalization stands at 151.7 billion pounds.
BP didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Shell’s statement. A BP spokesman declined to comment on the Journal’s report.
Bankers working on behalf of the companies have been engaged in the discussions, which are moving slowly, and a tie-up is far from certain, the Journal reported.
BP’s share price has come under pressure in recent years after an ill-fated push away from fossil fuels into renewable energy, management upheaval and operational setbacks. Activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which owns more than 5% of BP’s shares, has pushed for changes at the energy company
In February, the company touted a fundamental reset in its strategy, saying it would boost oil-and-gas production and sharply cut investments in clean energy.
For Shell, a potential deal with BP would allow it to challenge larger competitors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Shell has focused on its most profitable operations, pledging to pump more oil and gas and to hand money back to shareholders through share buyback programs.
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy has invited Korea to join the state’s massive liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, highlighting shared security, economic and energy interests.
Giving a special speech at the Korea Times-AMCHAM forum in Seoul, Tuesday, he highlighted Alaska’s legacy as the first LNG exporter to Asia — beginning with shipments to Japan in 1969 — and said the state is now seeking to deepen energy ties with Korea not only through gas sales but also through joint investment in the $50 billion project.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been urging Korea, Japan and other Asian nations to invest in the Alaska LNG project, which aims to construct a 1,300-kilometer pipeline connecting the North Slope — a vast, proven natural gas reserve — to southern Alaska for export.
“Many of you have heard about this project for decades, and this year this project has actually been accelerated with the help of President Trump and the economics throughout the world,” he said via video call, noting the state already holds a proven record of exporting gas.
“Alaska pioneered LNG export in 1969 to Japan. We were the first sovereign on the planet to export gas … For 50 years, we exported gas on a continual basis to Japan.”
The governor also pointed to Alaska’s geographic advantage in supplying gas to Korea.
“Gas coming from Alaska takes a shorter amount of time to get to Korea than it would be from the Gulf of America, from going around South America, and in many cases, than it would be coming from the Middle East,” he said, adding the state has already acquired required permits for the project, referring to the Gulf of Mexico by the name introduced by the Trump administration.
“This project that I’m referring to has all of its permits. We know … how much gas the project actually has because we’ve recycled that gas for many decades under North Slope.”
Alaska stands at a pivotal moment and the stars have aligned for our state. The Ambler Road — a long-planned 211-mile industrial use corridor connecting the Ambler Mining District to the Dalton Highway — offers a generational opportunity to unlock vital economic potential for rural communities while bolstering national security and supporting American manufacturing by ensuring a stable, domestic supply of critical minerals.
This project is about more than infrastructure. It’s about creating high-paying jobs in the Upper Kobuk region, attracting long-term private investment in our state, expanding local supply chains for some of our most rural communities, and delivering resources like copper and cobalt that are essential to everything from electric vehicles to advanced defense systems. And it can be done the Alaskan way — with rigorous environmental standards and a commitment to community engagement.
Unfortunately, this project has faced years of shifting federal decisions, despite long-standing legal precedent. Congress, led by the late Sen. Ted Stevens, clearly intended access to this region when it passed the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) in 1980. Yet actions by the last administration have created unnecessary delays and uncertainty, undermining confidence in the permitting process and discouraging badly needed investment in our resource economy.
Now, there’s renewed momentum within the federal government. The Trump Administration has signaled support for the project through executive order and other federal actions and recent legislation in the Senate supports the issuance of permits for the Ambler Road, signaling a return to regulatory stability and recognition of this project’s national importance. It’s a critical step, and it must be followed by full congressional approval — but permitting alone is not enough.
To succeed, this project must also earn and maintain the social license to operate. That means continuing meaningful engagement with tribal governments, local communities, Alaska Native corporations and subsistence users — not just as stakeholders, but as partners. Industry must listen, respond and demonstrate a commitment to delivering shared value: local jobs, training programs, cultural protections and infrastructure that benefits communities beyond the mine sites.
The economic case is clear. Mining in Alaska already supports over 11,000 jobs and contributes more than $1 billion in wages annually. In 2023, the industry generated nearly $50 million in local taxes and $136 million in state revenue — funding schools, roads, airports and public services. The Ambler Road would amplify that impact, expanding access to remote mineral resources and connecting them to statewide supply chains via rail and port systems used by communities and businesses across Alaska.
To get their major policy bill across the finish line without any Democratic support, Republicans are using a process known as budget reconciliation that has strict rules about which policies can be included.
In a ruling announced late Monday, the parliamentarian, which acts as an arbiter of the upper chamber’s rules, blocked several provisions from the bill.
They include measures that would: Exempt oil and gas from environmental reviews Require public land sales Allow gas exporters to pay for their projects to be automatically approved Mandate the construction of an Alaska mining road Require the government to auction off opportunities to produce geothermal energy on public lands
The provisions all come from the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The parliamentarian is still reviewing additional provisions put forward by that committee, including those requiring oil and gas lease sales in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and speeding up approvals for coal mining.
UK @EnergyInstitute has published its annual Statistical Review of World Energy. Lots of good data, but to me, one headline:
Last year, 60% of the world's **incremental** energy demand was covered by fossil fuels despite the fast growth in renewables.https://t.co/xPTkqOPxBq
Today’s Key Takeaways: BP looking to sell its interest in Prudhoe. Canada first LNG facility starts production. Novagold gives view of Donlin’s next phase of development. Can “green” wind and solar trash the planet?
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is marketing its overriding royalty interest (ORRI) in Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay field—the most prolific conventional oil field in North America—as part of a planned dissolution of the Trust. RedOaks Energy Advisors is serving as exclusive advisor on the transaction.
Discovered in 1968, Prudhoe Bay has produced more than 13 billion barrels of oil and remains a cornerstone of U.S. energy infrastructure. The field is currently operated by Hilcorp, the largest private oil and gas operator in the country, known for revitalizing mature assets and driving production growth.
The offered ORRI spans Hilcorp’s position in the field and benefits from decades of stable, high-margin production. Because the cash flow from the ORRI occurs only above a certain price for WTI, the ORRI has not resulted in a royalty payment since Q4-2022. Cash flow from the ORRI has historically been strong, supported by a low projected PDP and PUD decline rate of 2% annually over the next five years. Continued investment by Hilcorp—including five active rigs and a targeted 5% production increase in 2025—offers potential upside for buyers.
LNG Canada confirmed that it produced its first LNG last weekend and remains on track to begin export shipments in the coming days or weeks. It marks a major milestone for the project, which has been years in the making, and becomes Canada’s first large-scale LNG export terminal.
The project is reported to have cost as much as C$40 billion (US$29 billion) and is also the first LNG terminal in proximity to the Pacific Coast offering shorter transport distances to Asia. It is a joint venture led by Shell and includes Malaysia’s Petronas, Mitsubishi, Korea Gas, and PetroChina. The Canadian government has called it the “largest single private sector investment” in the history of Canada.
Novagold Resources Inc. [NG-TSX, NYSE American] and partner Paulson Advisors LLC are looking ahead to the next phase of development at the Donlin Gold project in Alaska.
“Our near-term priorities include commencing the feasibility study update, executing the 2025 drill program now focused on converting and expanding reserves and resources, and pursuing further exploration at depth,’’ said Novagold President and CEO Greg Lang. His comments appear in the company’s second quarter report
Donlin Gold, now held 60% by Novagold and 40% by funds managed by Paulson Advisers LLC, hosts one of the world’s largest and highest grade undeveloped open pit gold endowments.
It hosts a measured and indicated resource of 541 million tonnes of grade of 2.24 g/t gold, containing 39 million ounces of the yellow metal. Those estimates are based on an updated feasibility study dated, November 2011 that was amended in January 20, 2012. They include proven reserves of 8.0 million tonnes, grading 2.52 g/t.
The planned pits in which the existing resources are situated occupy only three kilometres of an eight- kilometre mineralized belt, which itself is located on less than 5% of Donlin Gold’s land position.
Novagwold said the Donlin joint venture has launched efforts to prepare for the updated feasibility study. It said a dedicated project team will be assembled at Donlin Gold to advance this work. The contracts for this work are expected to be awarded by year-end.
Having commenced drilling in February with a total of approximately 8,401 metres, Donlin Gold plans to complete15,000 metres in a program that is now focused on resource conversion and expansion.
Meanwhile, Donlin officials have met with Alaska Congressional delegation and industry officials in Washinton, D.C. to introduce Donlin Gold’s new General Manager, Todd Dahlman, and reinforce the project’s importance to Alaska and the Yukon-Kuskokwim region.
“Our new partnership with Paulson will allow us to now advance one of the world’s known gold development projects – one that has its key permits in hand and is located in Alaska, a stable Tier One, mining-friendly jurisdiction,’’ said Lang.
Donlin Creek is expected to be an open pit operation that will rank among the world’s lowest cost gold producers with annual production of one million ounces over a projected mine life of 27 years. “No gold mine ever began production with 39 million ounces in measured and indicated resources, inclusive of proven and probable mineral reserves,” Novagold said.
This week, Center of the American Experiment released “Shattered Green Dreams: The Environmental Costs of Wind and Solar,” which has been in the works for years — Isaac and Mitch actually worked on the earliest drafts of this report. Much ink has been spilled about the devastating impacts for the reliability and affordability of the grid that would result from going all-in on wind and solar.
This report takes a different angle: Policymakers and the public tend to treat wind, solar, and battery storage as unqualified goods for the environment and ignore the costs to our environment, wildlife, and lands. The truth is that every form of energy generation has challenges and benefits. Wind and solar are not as benign as they are made out to be, and for those who care about tangible goals — like protecting endangered and threatened species, preventing human rights abuses overseas, and preserving fertile agricultural lands — these costs should be more important than virtue-signaling one’s “eco-friendliness” with wind turbines and solar panels.
My latest research paper looks at the material demands, the environmental and worker health and safety costs of offshoring material demands, massive land use requirements, the ecological effects on wildlife, and the reasons why recycling isn’t a cure-all.
The International Energy Agency expects that global net-zero would quadruple total mineral demand from 2020 levels, with demand doubling for copper, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths. Graphite demand would triple and lithium demand would increase by a factor of ten. That would need 50 more lithium mines, 60 more nickel mines, and 17 more cobalt mines — by 2030, no less. Inflation Reduction Act subsidies juiced demand for lithium (up 15 percent), nickel (up 14 percent), cobalt (up 13 percent), and copper (up 12 percent) compared to pre-IRA projections.
Today’s Key Takeaways: Alaska has the most potential with untapped barrels of oil. Red Dog considers expanding production of germanium. Glenfarne and Thailand sign agreement that includes offtake from AKLNG. Subsidies vs. Tax Deductions: Wind, Solar, Oil and Gas.
USGS reports 29.4 billion barrels of untapped oil under U.S. federal lands.
Alaska is leading with around 14.46 billion barrels of untapped potential.
Oil production growth is slowing due to natural depletion and rising costs, especially in the Permian Basin, but new federal estimates could offset geological limits.
The United States is the largest oil and gas producer in the world. It is also experiencing a slowdown in its oil production for a number of reasons, including natural depletion. The U.S. Geological Survey, however, has just published a study stating that there are almost 30 billion new barrels of untapped oil—under federal lands, no less.
Oil and gas drilling was a contentious topic during the Biden administration. The administration decidedly did not like it and put a serious effort into curbing this drilling as much as the law allowed. As soon as Donald Trump became president, the tables turned and drilling on federal lands became very much a desirable direction for federal energy policy to move in, with the President prioritizing affordable energy and higher exports.
Now, the U.S. Geological Survey has thrown its weight behind the American energy dominance idea, reporting estimated undiscovered oil reserves of 29.4 billion barrels across the country, with the leader being Alaska with 14.46 billion barrels of untapped oil under federal lands. New Mexico is next, with 8.925 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, followed by Nevada, with 1.4 billion barrels. Untapped gas reserves on federal land were estimated at over 391.55 trillion cu ft. Now, the only question is when these hitherto untapped resources will be tapped.
GAS:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
JUNE 23, 2025
GLENFARNE AND PTT SIGN COOPERATION AGREEMENT INCLUDING OFFTAKE FROM ALASKA LNG
BANGKOK, THAILAND, ANCHORAGE, AK AND NEW YORK, NY (June 23, 2025) – Today, Glenfarne Alaska LNG, LLC announced that PTT Public Company Limited (“PTT”), the largest publicly traded company in Thailand, has signed a Cooperation Agreement (“Cooperation Agreement”) for strategic participation in the Alaska LNG project, including for the procurement of 2 million tonnes per annum (“MTPA”) of LNG from Alaska LNG over a 20-year term. Alaska LNG is held under 8 Star Alaska, LLC, a joint venture between Glenfarne Group, LLC subsidiary, Glenfarne Alaska LNG, LLC (“Glenfarne”), the majority owner and lead developer of Alaska LNG, and the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation. PTT is the publicly traded national oil and gas company of Thailand with a BBB+ investment grade credit rating.
The Cooperation Agreement defines the process for Alaska LNG and PTT to move toward definitive agreements for partnership on Alaska LNG, including long term LNG offtake.
“Glenfarne and Alaska LNG are pleased that PTT and the Thai government have realized the strategic security, cost, and stability advantages offered by the Alaska LNG project,” said Adam Prestidge, President of Glenfarne Alaska LNG, LLC. “With today’s and previously announced agreements, Alaska LNG has now reserved 50 percent of its available third-party LNG offtake capacity to investment grade counterparties, and the project has overwhelming interest from additional counterparties globally.”
Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A/TECK.B) is said to be weighing up options to expand its production of germanium, a strategic metal used in chipmaking, a company representative told Reuters on Friday.
According to Doug Brown, Teck’s VP of communications and government affairs, the miner is currently in funding talks with both the Canadian and US governments to improve its germanium production capabilities.
Germanium is one of 50 minerals identified by the US Geological Survey that are critical to America’s economy and national security. The metal is used to make semiconductors and infrared technology, as well as fibre optic cables and solar cells.
China currently controls around 60% of the global supply. Since last year, it has restricted exports of the mineral to the US amid growing trade tensions between the world’s two superpowers. Also included in Beijing’s export restrictions were gallium and antimony, which, like germanium, have uses in military technologies.
Teck’s plan
Vancouver-based Teck is currently North America’s biggest germanium producer, and the fourth largest globally.
The company produces the critical mineral as a byproduct of its Red Dog zinc mining operations in Alaska. Most of the germanium is shipped to the US, via smelting and refining in British Columbia.
Speaking to Reuters, Brown said Teck is now “exploring ways to add to the current processing line using existing technology as one of the options.”
The Inflation Reduction Act provided wind and solar power with lucrative tax credits that are essentially uncapped and available without limit.
The oil and gas industry receives tax deductions that pale in comparison to the vast sums of taxpayer money provided to wind and solar generators, estimated at 6%.
These energy forms offer very different benefits (revenues to the government, employment, and energy contribution) to Americans.
The U.S. economy gets less than 3% of its primary energy from wind and solar, compared to 74% from natural gas and oil.
Solar and wind tax credits should be phased out as they are in the House version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), President Biden’s signature climate bill, passed solely by Democrats, contains lucrative, essentially uncapped subsidies for wind and solar-generated power. Under current law, the tax credits phase out over four years, starting in either 2032 or when the U.S. power sector’s greenhouse gas emissions fall to a quarter of their 2022 levels — whichever comes later. An essentially uncapped phase-out defies the original purpose of tax credits, which is to spur the advent of young industries. The wind and solar power industries are decades old and should be able to advance without continued support from lawmakers and American taxpayers. These industries supplied 15.6% of the electricity generated by central generating stations in 2024, surpassing coal generation for the first time, which accounted for 15.2% of that power in the same year. As such, solar and wind tax credits should be phased out much earlier, as they are in the House version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
To replace 1.5M barrels of oil/day from Iran to China by rail if the Strait of Hormuz closes, you’d need ~27 trains (80 cars each, 700 barrels/car) running daily.
That’s a train every ~53 minutes, non-stop, across ~4,660 miles, ignoring logistics, costs, and infrastructure… https://t.co/Jd3EN0foms
Alaska’s gross domestic product grew more slowly over the past decade than that of all other states except for one, according to a Department of Labor and Workforce Development analysis.
The state’s GDP – the value of all goods and services – rose by only 0.4% annually on average from 2015 to 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the analysis in this month’s Alaska Economic Trends, the magazine published by the department’s research and analysis section. Only North Dakota has slower growth during the period, averaging 0.2% a year.
In comparison, the national annual growth rate for the period, adjusted for inflation, was 2.1% over the period, and the median growth rate — with half the states above and half below — was 1.7%.
Without adjustments for inflation, the state’s growth might appear robust: an annual average of 8.2% from 2020 to 2024. But that nominal rate is misleading because the period was marked by high inflation, the analysis points out.
It focuses instead on “real” GDP, which factors in inflation. In real terms, Alaska’s total GDP peaked more than a decade ago, when oil prices were highest. There were only three years between 2015 and 2024 when Alaska showed real GDP growth — 2017, 2021 and 2022 — which also were the only years when Alaska’s growth outpaced the national average, the analysis found.
The statistics demonstrate the state’s economic vulnerability, said Sam Tappen, the state economist who did the analysis and wrote the Trends article.
“The fact that we’ve had such long-term stagnation, I think, is troubling,” he said.
The statistics reflect Alaska’s dependence on oil and the price of that commodity, which depends on world markets and global events beyond the state’s control.
The volatility of oil prices has an outsized impact on Alaska’s economy, he said. “Oil just tends to push around the total,” he said.
Beyond the period of high oil prices, there were two different years of steep drops: 2015, when a plunge in oil prices caused a 9% drop in GDP, and 2020, when Alaska’s real GDP fell 7.1% amid the global COVID-19 pandemic disruptions.
Not coincidentally, other states at or near the bottom — North Dakota, Wyoming and Louisiana — are also highly dependent on oil and gas.
The good news in the statistics is that outside of the oil-dominated mining sector, the state’s real gross domestic product has been increasing. “All the other industries are typically growing pretty steadily,” Tappen said.
But even that good news is tempered by the reality that nonoil sectors of the economy depend to a large degree on oil.
That includes the strong transportation and warehousing sector, which accounts for a little over 14% of Alaska’s total gross domestic product and is among the sectors with the highest real growth. More than half of the sector’s output is directly tied to the oil industry, Tappen pointed out.
Other sectors with notable growth, averaging around 3% annually, were leisure and hospitality, construction, private health and education. The oil-dominated mining sector declined at an average annual rate of 2.6%, and the natural resources sector, which includes seafood harvesting, declined at an annual average of 3.9%, Tappen’s research found.
Gross domestic product is just one measure of an economy, Tappen’s article points out. There are other measures, including employment and income.
