“Alaska and America’s Energy Industry in Crosshairs”

Today’s Key Takeaways: Competing oil price estimates.  Gas exports permit slow under current administration.  China’s control of graphite exports impacts energy sector.  Alaska’s energy industry in the crosshairs. 

OIL:

Oil Prices Could Test $115 If Hamas-Israel War Escalates Into Regional Conflict
Charles Kennedy, OilPrice.Com, October 31, 2023

Weakening global economic growth could keep oil prices below $90 per barrel this year and next, barring a major escalation in the Hamas-Israel war that could spill over the Middle East and threaten supply, which could send oil to above $100 and testing $115 a barrel, analysts said in the monthly Reuters poll.

Brent Crude prices are expected to average $84.80 per barrel this year and $86.62 next year, a Reuters survey of 40 analysts and economists found.

So far this year, Brent Crude prices have averaged $82.60 a barrel.

Oil prices are falling even as Israel steps up its war on Hamas. A spike could still happen
Anna Cooban, CNN, October 31, 2023

Oil prices fell again Monday as concerns about the health of the global economy outweighed fears that Israel’s move on the weekend to expand its military operations in Gaza could lead to a regional conflict.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.6% to $89 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the US benchmark, dropped 1.9% to trade at $84 a barrel by 8.47 a.m. ET.Last week, Brent fell 1.8% and WTI 3.6%.

Richard Bronze, co-founder, and head of geopolitics at consultancy Energy Aspects, told CNN that the biggest reason for the declines was likely to be “market concerns about the health of the global economy and the implications for oil demand.”

GAS:

US reviews of gas-export permits slow under Biden administration
Curtis Williams, Reuters, October 30, 2023

 U.S. Department of Energy reviews for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits have lengthened under President Joe Biden’s administration to 11 months or more, from seven weeks, according to government data.

The delay could mean nearly completed LNG projects may not being able to supply big European buyers because of a lack of the permit. Increasing LNG exports is opposed by some U.S. industries who fear it could raise domestic prices, while environmental groups have raised concerns about continued expansion of a fossil fuel industry.

Big swaths of U.S. industry – ranging from chemicals, steel, food, and agriculture – oppose unrestricted exports of U.S. gas. Export permits represent the most significant limit thus far on an industry hoping to add 50% more to U.S. export capacity by 2026.

The average time for issuing an export license for supplying the superchilled gas to some of the biggest buyers of U.S. LNG, non-Free Trade Agreement (non-FTA) countries, has climbed under the Biden administration to over 330 days from 155 days under the Obama administration and 49 days under the Trump administration, according to DOE data.

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MINING:

Will China Controls on Graphite Exports Affect Energy Sector?
Andreas Exarheas, Rigzone, October 31, 2023

On October 20, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOC) and the country’s General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on “optimizing and adjusting temporary export control measures for graphite items”, a statement on China’s MOC website, which was translated from Chinese, showed.

“In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People’s Republic of China, the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China, and the Customs Law of the People’s Republic of China, in order to safeguard national security and interests, and with the approval of the State Council, it was decided to impose restrictions on the Ministry of Commerce, the State Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense, and the Customs,” the translated statement noted.

What does this mean for energy markets? Well, when Rigzone asked Carole Nakhle, the CEO of consultancy Crystol Energy, if China’s controls on graphite exports will affect renewable energy operations, Nakhle highlighted that “graphite is an important component for electric vehicles’ battery”.

“A curb in the supply of the material originating from an important supplier that is China will increase its price and therefore the cost of production of batteries, particularly for non-Chinese producers,” Nakhle told Rigzone.

“However, it is that same price signal and the concern of customers about security of supply that will also encourage the development of alternatives supplies, which is desperately needed to support security of supply for the energy transition,” Nakhle added.

When asked if China’s controls on graphite exports will affect oil and gas operations, Nakhle highlighted that graphite is also used in oil and gas operations but noted that it is not as critical as for electric vehicles.

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POLITICS:

Alaska and America’s energy industry are in the crosshairs
Mike Pompeo, Anchorage Daily News, October 30, 2023

It’s not a coincidence that the vicious, barbaric attack by Hamas on Israel took place 50 years to the day of the start of the Yom Kippur War in 1973. That invasion helped spark an oil crisis that crushed America’s economy and drove rapid inflation. Today, Iran not only hopes to wipe Israel off the face of the earth but also seeks to inflict real costs on the United States by fomenting war and terror across the Middle East. The regime in Tehran seeks to replicate what the 1973 invasion wrought: global energy instability and an upper hand over the Western world. Thanks to the remarkable innovations of America’s energy producers, though, we can now stop this pain from ever being inflicted on our country or the world. We can ensure prosperity and energy security at home while maintaining the capacity to help our ally, Israel, defend itself from these wicked attacks.

Unfortunately, standing in the way of achieving this energy security are the policies that deliberately undermine our domestic oil and gas industry. In his first one hundred days in office, President Joe Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, ceased issuing new drilling permits on federal lands, and imposed new burdensome regulations on oil and gas companies. In short, he declared war on the industry that allows American families and businesses to prosper. This war continues today, with recent actions to rewrite the rules in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska and revoked leases legally obtained on Alaska’s coastal plain.

At the state level, activists, and their allied politicians in energy-producing states such as New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Louisiana are using lawsuits and mandates to strangle their oil and gas industries. In other states, they seek to discourage production through tax hikes.

It may be hard to believe, but this is exactly what some lawmakers in Alaska were considering last session, proposing bills that would raise taxes on oil and gas production by as much as 40%. The Last Frontier can play a uniquely important role in ensuring American energy independence due to its strategic location, substantial natural resources and vast untapped gas reserves. However, with producers already under fire from the Biden administration, introducing tax hikes would be catastrophic for the industry and the American economy.

Tax hikes in Alaska’s already challenging environment would trigger an immediate retreat in Alaska’s energy development. Destabilizing current production while greatly disincentivizing future development in Alaska would have ramifications across the United States and for our allies who depend on American energy in Europe, the Middle East, and even potentially in the Indo-Pacific.

As secretary of state, I saw firsthand how energy security impacted geopolitics. When we can supply our allies with clean energy from our own industry rather than relying on others, the United States can lead from a position of strength. Due to bad policies by the Biden administration at the federal level and misguided lawmakers and activists at the state level, we are in danger of losing our ability to do this.

With war in Europe and now the Middle East, the United States and our allies are at a dangerous moment. We can either become a 21st-century energy superpower, capable of supporting peace and prosperity at home and around the world, or we can return to the dreary days of the 1970s – where high inflation, economic stagnation, and global instability threatened American families.

Getting this right starts at home. It starts in key energy states like Alaska. I urge Alaskans to recognize the responsibility and opportunity to lead by making choices to increase production by defeating efforts to increase state taxes so that they have the credibility to push back on the Biden Administration’s policies. The fate of our economy and national security hangs in the balance.

BlackRock to SEC: Back off ESG!  Marathon Committed to Plans re: Alaska LNG Imports.

Today’s Key Takeaways:  BlackRock clarifies ESG stance.  Biden’s proposed NPR-A plan threatens future projects and infrastructure.  Marathon continues to evaluate conversion of Kenai LNG terminal for imports.  AK DOT works to improve roads used for Manh Choh mining project.  Americans say:  What EV tax credits? 

NEWS OF THE DAY:

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, has been making the rounds to clarify the companies position on the controversial topic of ESG: 

For example, here is Larry Fink’s interview on Fox Business from last week that led to story by The Daily Caller highlighting Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino’s tweet that Larry told SEC Chair Gary Gensler to back off some ESG policies – including Scope 3 related corporate carbon footprint disclosure requirements.   

Additionally, he was on the Wall Street Journal’s Free Expression podcast with Gerry Baker.  Some highlights from that conversation: 

On ESG/Scope 3 Emissions

  • “So, there are three different measures of your carbon footprint, and scope 3 is all your vendors and all your clients and all that stuff. We have been hostilely against that. The SEC’s trying to pose that as a platform.”

On ESG/Environmental Proxy Voting

  • “[Last year] we voted against almost all the proposals that quote unquote were ‘environmental.’ The reason why is the SEC changed the standards to what can be included in a proxy vote. And most of it is non-economic, and we vote against it.”

On Energy Investing

  • “We have never said one time ever that we would divest [from traditional energy companies]. In fact, in the last few years, we’ve been awarded more business from different energy companies than almost anybody. We were even awarded Chevron’s entire defined contribution plan in the last year.”
  • “I mean, we offer choice. So, we are working with every company, every client, “What would you like to do?” We’re working with financial advisors across the world to provide choice to our clients. And I believe that’s what we do really well. If you want to invest in hydrocarbons, we will select the best hydrocarbon companies in the world for you. If you want to invest in a more decarbonized portfolio, we’re going to try to find the best economic portfolio that will achieve your financial goal.”

OIL:

Biden Alaska Oil Plan Seen as Major Threat to Future Drilling
Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Bloomberg, October 30, 2023

  • Tighter rules risk viability of projects, ConocoPhillips warns
  • Proposal would impact even existing leases, industry fears

A century after the US set aside a broad swath of northwest Alaska to be used as an emergency oil supply, the Biden administration is pursuing changes that could make it impossible to harvest crude from new leases in the 23-million-acre site.

The proposal for managing the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska has alarmed oil industry advocates who say it would thwart development in a crude-rich region the size of Indiana. Alaska’s congressional delegation said the Biden administration is “suddenly and dramatically reinterpreting the law so that it can treat 13.1 million acres” of the reserve “as de facto federal wilderness.” And a top ConocoPhillips Co. executive says the changes stoke uncertainty about future oil projects and infrastructure across the region.

The proposal “would discourage investment on the North Slope by adding more layers of permitting requirements and restrictions, even for existing leases,” Erec Isaacson, the president of ConocoPhillips Alaska, said in an interview Thursday.

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GAS:

Marathon Petroleum Remains Committed to Plans for Alaskan LNG Imports
Jason Cocklin, Natural Gas Intelligence, October 30, 2023

Marathon Petroleum Corp. continues to evaluate converting its Kenai LNG export terminal in Alaska to import the super-chilled fuel, a project the company said ultimately could be larger than originally planned to help meet local natural gas demand.

FERC approved a Marathon subsidiary’s  request in 2020 to convert the Kenai terminal, which hasn’t exported any LNG since 2015.

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MINING:

AK DOT improves roads as Manh Choh mining project moves forward
Alex Bengel, KTVF, October 26, 2023

Nearly two months ago, the Manh Choh Mine broke ground in a ceremony featuring Governor Mike Dunleavy.

The mine, located near the community of Tetlin, which is south of Tok, is projected to yield more than six hundred thousand ounces of gold out of raw ore, to be extracted over the next four and a half years.

In order to process the raw ore from the mine, the primary owner, Kinross Gold Corporation plans to truck it to a mill at their Fort Knox site north of Fairbanks.

Because of this, the project has garnered controversy in Interior Alaska since its announcement, with both the Fairbanks and North Pole City Councils expressing concerns over safety along the trucking route.

According to Kinross, mining operations began in mid-August after the project received its full permitting in May.

By the end of September, five to 10 thousand cubic yards of waste were being mined every day, with operations still ramping up.

According to Tyler Bruce, Project Director at the mine, “to develop the pits, you can’t start with your full operation. There physically isn’t the room. You first need to develop benches and working areas.”

Waste is essentially rock that doesn’t have gold content in it. This must first be extracted in order to reach the desired ore.

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POLITICS:

Exclusive: 40% of Americans say they’ve never heard of Biden’s EV tax credits
Ben Geman, Axios, October 30, 2023

Polling shared first with Axios shows huge swaths of Americans don’t know about federal subsidies up to $7,500 for buying electric vehicles.

Driving the news: Just 22% know a “great deal” or “good amount” about the credit, which was expanded — with strings attached — under the 2022 climate law.

  • That’s per survey data from BlueLabs Analytics, a data sciences firm that works with Fortune 500 companies, advocacy groups and Democrats.
  • Republican and Democratic respondents in the late-August poll show similar awareness, with about 40% of both camps knowing “nothing at all” about the subsidy.

Why it matters: Consumer knowledge gaps could undercut the substantive and political impact of the 2022 climate law, which provides tax breaks for home efficiency retrofits, EVs, green appliances, and much more.

State of play: 10% of respondents will “definitely” choose an electric model for their next purchase or lease, while another 28% “might.”

  • 56% of Democrats say they will or might choose an EV, compared with 19% of Republicans — another sign of the red-blue EV divide.
  • Black respondents are slightly less aware of the credit.

The intrigue: Women are slightly less likely to plan EV purchases and substantially less aware of the credit than men.

  • Meagan Knowlton, head of BlueLabs’ sustainability practice, said prior research shows women prioritize product sustainability more than men.
  • This suggests that “people are not necessarily looking at EVs as primarily a sustainability or climate-driven purchase.”

The bottom line: “We see it as an area of opportunity for raising awareness and education” about the overall results, Knowlton said.

Go deeper: Which electric vehicles (EVs) qualify for a tax credit?

Wednesday’s Windy Woes – Offshore Wind Is Expensive

Today’s Key Takeaway:  Offshore wind developers would rather pay penalties in their contracts rather than proceed with their current power purchase agreements due to high interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues.

New York Rejects Offshore Wind Power Petitions, As Do Other States
Institute for Energy Research, October 23, 2023

  • Developers of offshore wind projects essential to President Biden’s climate program want to renegotiate contracts as Bidenomics takes its toll.
  • NY State rejected a request for a 48 percent average increase from offshore wind projects whose power purchase agreements were already high compared to other generating technologies.
  • Forcing offshore wind into the system will lead to higher consumer prices when electricity prices are already high and climbing.
  • More troubles for offshore wind loom due to dead whales and fishermen who are convinced that offshore wind and its associated activities will ruin their livelihood.

President Biden’s offshore wind goal of installing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 is facing an uncertain future due to inflationary costs and supply chain issues that are making offshore wind developers ask for higher priced contracts. In the case of New York, the Public Service Commission denied Orsted, Equinor, and BP’s pleas to adjust the contracts for their respective offshore wind projects because allowing the contract adjustments would increase ratepayer costs by $29.76 billion over the contract terms.

On average, offshore wind developers are seeking a 48 percent increase in their contract prices. The cost increase would result in increased energy bills of between 2.3 percent and 6.7 percent for residential customers, and between 2.5 percent and 10.5 percent for commercial customers, which is on top of already high costs for offshore wind power in the original contracts.

Without the adjustments, the projects are likely unviable, despite the companies having already sunk huge amounts of money into the projects. In its petition seeking a contract adjustment for its 924-megawatt Sunrise Wind project, Ørsted indicated “the project’s financial profile has worsened markedly — so much so that it is now not a viable investment.”

As project costs have risen steeply due to supply chain challenges, inflation and high interest rates characterized as “Bidenomics,” several offshore wind developers in the Atlantic have sought to exit and renegotiate power purchase agreements.

Avangrid filed settlements with Connecticut utilities Eversource Energy and United Illuminating to cancel its power purchase agreements (PPAs) for the 804-megawatt Park City Wind project. According to Avangrid, financial challenges triggered by supply chain disruptions, rising interest rates and other factors rendered the Park City Wind project “unfinanceable under its existing contracts.”

If the termination agreements are approved by the Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority, Avangrid would pay about $16 million to exit PPAs tied to the Park City Wind project off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard. The project has been unable to secure financing and will not be built unless Avangrid is released from its existing contracts. Avangrid plans to rebid the project.

In Massachusetts, regulators approved the termination of power purchase agreements (PPAs) tied to the 1,200-megawatt SouthCoast Wind project, an offshore development by Shell New Energies and Ocean Winds North America. SouthCoast Wind agreed to pay more than $60 million to be released from the contracts.

The company plans to move forward with the project and bid into upcoming solicitations. The termination of the SouthCoast PPAs led Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell to call for additional safeguards to protect ratepayers against future cancelations.

Sunrise Wind, SouthCoast and Park City are far from the only offshore wind developments to exit PPAs this year. Avangrid filed termination agreements for the proposed 1,223-megawatt Commonwealth Wind farm. Avangrid would pay $48 million in penalties for the termination to National Grid ($21.6 million), Eversource ($25.9 million), and Unitil ($480,000). 

According to Commonwealth Wind, it will rebid the generation capacity currently included in the PPAs in Massachusetts’ next solicitation with cost-effective pricing, a superior timeline for completion, and exceptional economic development opportunities. Bids for the state’s fourth offshore wind solicitation are due January 31, 2024. Massachusetts is aiming to procure up to 3,600 megawatts, which would make the solicitation New England’s largest offshore wind procurement to date.

Rhode Island Energy announced that it would not move forward with an offshore wind PPA with Ørsted and Eversource for the 884-megawatt Revolution Wind 2, calling it “too expensive.” Rhode Island Energy cited higher interest rates, increased costs of capital and supply chain expenses, and the uncertainty of federal tax credits as economic factors that made the project as proposed “too expensive for customers to bear.”

In New Jersey, Cape May County and environmental and fishing industry groups are suing the federal government in a bid to overturn its approval of the state’s first offshore wind farm.

The lawsuit was filed in U.S. District Court against the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to reverse their approval of the Ocean Wind I project that is to be constructed in waters off southern New Jersey by the Danish wind power company Orsted.

The plaintiffs allege that the agencies did not follow the requirements of nearly a dozen federal laws in approving the project and did not adequately consider potential harm to the environment and marine life from offshore wind projects.

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IEA and OPEC Disagree on Peak Oil Demand Predictions.  More Time for NPR-A.

Today’s Key Takeaways: IEA vs. OPEC on peak oil demand predictions.  Alaska delegation asks for more time on NPR-A comment period.  It’s hard to quit gas.  Doyon cancels land-access agreement for Ambler Road project

NEWS OF THE DAY:

The IEA Reiterates Its Peak Oil Demand Prediction
Irina Slav, OilPrice.Com, October 24, 2023

  • In its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency has reiterated its claim that crude oil, natural gas, and coal will peak before 2030.
  • The agency sees the emergence of a new clean energy economy as providing hope for the way forward, emphasizing the economic case for clean energy technologies.
  • The report focuses on the importance of resilience and energy security, particularly due to the geopolitical developments currently disrupting energy markets.

Demand for oil, natural gas, and coal is set to peak before 2030, which undermines the case for increasing investment in fossil fuels.

This is one of the outtakes from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, released earlier today.

While the agency does admit that investment in fossil fuels will remain necessary, it claims the growth era is over.

When Birol first mentioned peak oil, gas, and coal, he prompted an immediate reaction from OPEC, which slammed the head of the IEA for making unwise predictions that could threaten the world’s energy supply security.

“Such narratives only set the global energy system up to fail spectacularly. It would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world,” OPEC secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said in September.

The release of the World Energy Outlook may now prompt a similar response from OPEC, which forecast recently that demand for oil is going to continue rising at least until 2045.

OIL:

Alaska delegation asks for extended comment period on NPR-A
Jake Barnwell, Fairbanks Daily News Miner, October 24, 2023

All three members of Alaska’s congressional delegation are asking the Biden administration to extend a public comment period on management changes for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) by 80 days.

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GAS:

Italy’s LNG deal with Qatar shows how hard it is to quit gas
Gavin Macguire, Reuters, October 23, 2023

Italy’s ENI SpA (ENI.MI) signed a deal this week to purchase up to 1 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually from QatarEnergy for the next 27 years, locking in gas flows to Southern Europe’s largest economy until at least 2050.

Gas accounted for around 51% of Italy’s total electricity generation in 2022, making the country the most gas-reliant among Europe’s largest economies, data from Ember shows.

Italy is also overwhelmingly dependent on imports for gas supplies, with over 95% of the country’s gas shipped in from overseas in 2022, according to the Energy Institute.

Its high dependence on gas imports has spurred Italy to accelerate electricity capacity construction from renewable sources such as solar and wind, which expanded by 11% and 5% respectively in 2022 to exceed the growth of other sources.

However, even with record gains in clean electricity output, natural gas has remained Italy’s dominant source of electricity this year and looks set to remain the bedrock of the country’s power system for decades longer despite expected further increases in renewable power over the coming years.

READ MORE

MINING:

Doyon cancels land access for Alaska development agency, a barrier for the Ambler Road project
Alex DeMarban, Anchorage Daily News, October 23, 2023

A regional Alaska Native corporation is canceling a land-access agreement with a state development agency, a move that raises questions about how the 200-mile Ambler Road project in Northwest Alaska will be built.

Doyon, the largest private landholder in Alaska, cited “poor treatment” as a factor in a sharply worded letter outlining its decision to cancel the agreement with the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority. The three-year agreement ends in April. It has allowed for contractors to conduct studies needed to support the project’s development on Doyon land.

Doyon does not plan to extend the agreement or enter a new land-access agreement with the state agency, said the one-page letter, signed by Doyon CEO Aaron Schutt. Doyon is sending the letter in advance of the termination date so the state agency has time to plan for next summer’s work, the letter said.

The letter also expresses Doyon’s disappointment with the state agency’s actions on a separate, North Slope oil field project that Doyon has also been involved in.

The letter, dated Oct. 17 and addressed to Randy Ruaro, executive director for AIDEA, leaves open the possibility of future discussions with the state agency.

In a statement emailed to a reporter on Monday, the state agency said Ruaro and staff have held “several respectful meetings” with Doyon and the Native corporations’ shareholders in the communities nearest to the proposed road.

“Significant progress has been made with communities and Tribes regarding the project and benefits of jobs and economic development,” said the statement from Josie Wilson, a spokeswoman with the agency. “It is unfortunate and frankly unfair that Doyon is tying issues not involving the Ambler Road to its support for the Ambler Road. AIDEA will remain focused on advancing the project and working directly with communities and Tribes closest to the project to mitigate impacts and maximize benefits.”

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Confusing Oil Production With Oil Demand?  Willow Project Not A Carbon Bomb.

Today’s Key Takeaways:   More consolidation in the oil industry.   Confusing oil production with oil demand.  Singapore centralizes gas purchased in pursuit of energy security.   Pogo on pace for 250,000 ounces of gold in 2023.  From house energy committee to speaker of the house? 

NEWS OF THE DAY:

Chevron buys Hess for $60B as Big Oil deals reshape industry
Ben Geman, Axios, October 23, 2023

U.S. oil industry consolidation is suddenly happening at breakneck speed.

Driving the news: This morning Chevron announced an all-stock deal to buy Hess Corp. for $53 billion, with a total deal value of $60B including debt. It comes on the heels of Exxon’s blockbuster Oct. 11 deal to buy Pioneer Natural Resources in an even larger transaction.

Why it matters: The deals (if regulators bless them) are reshaping the American industry as the two largest U.S. companies, flush with cash after a long stretch of high prices, snag giant independents.

State of play: Chevron’s deal has big differences with Exxon’s.

  • While Pioneer operates in the Permian Basin, Hess has operations in North Dakota’s shale patch, as well as the offshore Gulf of Mexico.
  • It’s a multinational player too, a huge part of the deal.
  • Hess has developments offshore Guyana — a major new oil frontier where Exxon is a major presence — and gas operations in the Gulf of Thailand.

The big picture: Exxon and Chevron are making bigbets on robust and enduring oil and gas demand despite climate policies.

  • Chevron said the merged firm “is expected to grow production and free cash flow faster and for longer than Chevron’s current five-year guidance.”

What they’re saying: “While Hess is based in the U.S., the real prize in the portfolio is Guyana where in less than a decade, the country has vaulted into one of the most important growth areas for non-OPEC oil production,” Third Bridge analyst Peter McNally said in emailed remarks to reporters.

What we’re watching: How much more consolidation looms.

The bottom line: Dominoes are falling.

OIL:

Do Environmentalists Confuse Oil Production With Oil Demand?
Irwin Dawid, Planitizen, October 23, 2023

Big Oil, “whose past behavior makes them easy targets for attacks,” and domestic oil production are major targets for environmental organizations in the United States that are fighting climate change, writes Samantha Gross, previously a director of the Office of International Climate and Clean Energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, for the Brookings’ Energy Security and Climate Initiative on September 14.

However, this paper argues that the best way to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the oil industry is to reduce oil demand, rather than focusing on reducing domestic oil production.

Her research paper is a 36-minute read and the source article for this post. 

This is a more difficult task than protesting particular projects or companies; it involves changing the system through which we use energy. In the case of oil, it primarily involves changing how we fuel our transportation system — moving from gasoline and diesel to electricity for most of our on-road transport.

It could also involve redesigning our cities and lifestyles, making more efficient forms of transport workable and attractive. 

Furthermore, reducing domestic oil production does nothing to reduce emissions, adds Gross. Rather, the main result is to increase oil imports.

Oil is plentiful, fungible, and easy to transport, and other producers can easily step in to meet oil demand if the United States does not. U.S. energy security will also suffer if the United States reduces domestic oil production faster than demand.

“Offshoring” oil production to other countries only adds to emissions due to the transport requirements. Gross notes that “[m]any foreign sources of oil inherently require more energy in their production, resulting in greater emissions of GHGs and other pollutants than production here in the United States.”

This correspondent would add that many of the less-developed foreign oil exporters have few of the environmental safeguards required by states, particularly California, and U.S. regulatory agencies.

[Related: Election 2024: California Oil Drilling Referendum]

Case in Point: Alaska’s Willow Project

“On March 13,the Biden administration approved one of the largest oil developmentson federal land, a decision that came after months of intense lobbying and over objections that the project, known as Willow, would undermine U.S. efforts to phase out fossil fuels worldwide,” reported Timothy Puko for The Washington Post on March 17.

[Related in Planetizen: Judge Halts Controversial Alaska Drilling project, August 22, 2021.]

Backlash from environmental groups was instantaneous.

“The Biden administration has approved a gargantuan Alaskan oil project that threatens to unleash a global carbon bomb,” stated an Earthjustice press release on March 13. 

We’ve been fighting Willow since it was first proposed, and this isn’t the end. Earthjustice has filed a lawsuit on behalf of conservation groups to keep this destructive project from moving forward.

[April 3 update from Earthjustice: “A federal judge today ruled in favor of oil giant ConocoPhillips by denying a motion [pdf] for preliminary injunction brought by environmentalists as part of a lawsuit [pdf] challenging the Willow project in Alaska’s Western Arctic.”]

Is the drilling project a carbon bomb?

“Describing the Willow project as a ‘carbon bomb’” assumes that if the Willow project does not happen, no other producer will pick up the slack,” argues Gross.

But that assumption is wrong. Instead, the avoided U.S. production would be added to the global market by producers in some other country. The United States would lose the security benefit of producing the fuel domestically without a reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.

As long as there is demand for the oil that the project aims to produce, someone will produce it. If not at this project, then at another.

GAS:

Singapore Centralizes Gas Purchases to Boost Energy Security – Bloomberg
Yongchang Chin, Stephen Stapczynski, Elizabeth Low, Bloomberg, October 23, 2023

  • Gas demand from power-generating companies to be aggregated
  • Change will create stable, secure power system, minister says

Singapore will centralize natural gas purchases in a bid to improve the stability and security of its power sector.

The nation will aggregate demand from generating companies, which will create economies of scale and allow Singapore to negotiate more favorable gas contracting terms and procure fuel from diverse sources, Minister for Trade & Industry Gan Kim Yong said at the Singapore International Energy Week conference.

“This is a fundamental shift in our approach toward gas procurement,” he said. “We believe that this is necessary to create a more stable and secure power system that will ultimately benefit the consumers and also the gencos themselves.”


READ MORE

MINING:

Pogo on pace for 250,000 oz gold in 2023
Shane Lasley, North of 60 Mining News, October 20, 2023

Northern Star Resources Ltd. Oct. 19 reported that its Pogo Mine in Alaska produced 61,817 ounces of gold during the third quarter of calendar year 2023. Over the first nine months of this year, Pogo poured 192,918 oz of gold, putting the company’s only operation outside of Australia on pace to top 250,000 oz in 2023.

Since completing an expansion of the Pogo mill to 1.3 million metric tons per year in 2022, Northern Star has been working to ramp up gold output at the high-grade underground mine to 300,000 oz per year.

Calander year 2023 got off to a bit of a slow start due to a damaged motor that put the mill out of commission for three weeks. Despite this setback, the operation produced 49,779 oz during the first quarter.

Pogo bounced back during the second quarter – producing 81,322 oz of gold during the three-month period ending in June, the highest quarterly output in recent years.

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POLITICS:

PALMER LOOKS TO LEAP FROM ENERGY COMMITTEE TO SPEAKER’S OFFICE: A prominent House Energy Committee member is vying to wield the Speaker’s gavel: Republican Rep. Gary Palmer of Alabama.

The Alabama Republican formally announced his bid on Sunday, joining eight other GOP members in the race to be leader of the GOP conference. In a statement, Palmer argued that he can offer “steady, conservative leadership” that can unite the conference “behind a clear path forward.”

Why it’s significant: Out of the exhaustive list of candidates running to replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Palmer is the only candidate that sits on the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Notably, he’s also a policy wonk, sitting as chair of the Republican Policy Committee. If Palmer were to assume the gavel, he would come in with a unique perspective on the energy landscape.

His track record: Palmer had influence over House Republicans’ sweeping energy package that passed the House earlier this year (but was stalled in the Senate). The bill includes his provisions defunding the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund under the Inflation Reduction Act, and another that would prevent the implementation of an Energy Department efficiency rule regulating gas stoves.

As a prominent member of the House Energy Committee, Palmer sits on three subcommittees: the Energy, Climate, and Grid Security subcommittee; Environment, Manufacturing & Critical Minerals subcommittee; and Oversight and Investigations subcommittee.

The American Energy Alliance, a conservative advocacy group that is pro-fossil fuels, gave Palmer a 100% on their 2022 Energy Scorecard. Their annual report card is scored on principles that include “eliminating the subsidies, mandates, and special interest giveaways that lead to higher energy costs,” and “reducing the role of government in energy markets.”

Still, the congressman doesn’t always agree with his party on marquee bills. In 2016, the Alabama Republican was one of 21 House Republicans to vote against a major water infrastructure package that would improve drinking water facilities across the nation, among other things. He reasoned that the bill included a provision that would undermine Alabama’s efforts to resolve a water dispute with Georgia and Florida, arguing that it inserts federal power into a matter “that can and should be resolved by the states.” The dispute was over the allocations of water in two major river basins that cross some or all of the states’ borders: the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa Basin and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Basin.

From the Washington Examiner, Daily on Energy