by wp_sysadmin | Oct 30, 2020 | News
When To Expect Election Results In Every State
Nathaniel Rakich and Elena Mejíam, FiveThirtyEight, October 30, 2020
A complete guide to poll closing times, vote counting and races to watch on election night 2020
There’s a good chance we won’t know who won the presidential election on election night. More people than ever are voting by mail this year due to the pandemic, and mail ballots take longer to count than ballots cast at polling places. But because each state has its own rules for how votes are counted and reported, some will report results sooner than others. Those disparate rules may also make initial returns misleading: The margins in some states may shift toward Democrats as mail ballots (which are overwhelmingly cast by Democrats) are counted, while states that release mail ballots first may experience a shift toward Republicans as Election Day votes are tallied.
Here’s a general picture of how much of the vote we expect to be counted on election night in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. If you click on a given state, it’ll take you to a more detailed description of when to expect results and whether to expect a red or blue shift in the vote count.
by wp_sysadmin | Oct 29, 2020 | News
News of the Day:
Economy Grows at Record Pace in Third Quarter, Unemployment at lowest level since March
OIL
ConocoPhillips Alaska’s 2020 earnings recap: Net Loss of $76 Million, $442m in obligations to the State of Alaska, Spent $882 million in capital in Alaska.
Oil & Gas 360, October 29, 2020
From the company’s press release today: “ At an Alaska State Chamber meeting in September, Joe Marushack, president of ConocoPhillips Alaska, commented on the state of the oil industry in Alaska. “Low oil prices and demand destruction have shut down almost all drilling, and for the first time since Prudhoe, Alpine and Kuparuk have all been in production, no rigs are running in these fields,” he said. Marushack noted that a restart of drilling to get the North Slope Renaissance back on track is unlikely to resume in 2021 if Ballot Measure 1 is approved. Since 2007, ConocoPhillips Alaska has paid over $38 billion in taxes and royalties to the State of Alaska and the federal government. Of that amount, about $30 billion went directly to the State.”
GAS
Russia approves Arctic strategy up to 2035
S & P Global Platts, October 26, 2020
HIGHLIGHTS:
Arctic to account for 26% of oil output by 2035
LNG production to increase to 91 mil mt in 2035
Russian president Vladimir Putin Oct. 26 approved the strategy for developing Russia’s Arctic zone and ensuring national security up to 2035. Russia continues to see the Arctic as a key development priority, despite growing concerns over the impact of climate change on the region.
The strategy acknowledged that temperatures in the region are warming 2-2.5 times faster than the global average, and states that this poses both opportunities and risks for the economy and environment.
MINING
NASA finds rare metal asteroid worth more than global economy
Cecilia, Jamasmie, Mining.Com, October 29, 2020
NASA’s Hubble Telescope has obtained images of an asteroid so rich in rare metals that its worth puts our global economy to shame. Think $10,000 quadrillion ($10,000,000,000,000,000,000), compared to the world’s economy, which was worth about $142 trillion in 2019. The rare heavy-metal object, called “16 Psyche,” is one of the largest celestial bodies in the Solar System’s main asteroid belt, orbiting between Mars and Jupiter. It’s located at roughly 370 million km (230 million miles) from Earth and measures 226 km (140 miles) across.
16 Psyche was actually discovered in 1852, but this is the first time scientists can get a closer look. What makes it special is that, unlike most asteroids that are either rocky or icy, 16 Psyche is made almost entirely of iron and nickel, a study published this week in The Planetary Science Journal shows. Tracy Becker, a planetary scientist and author of the paper, says the asteroid is likely the leftover core of a planet that never properly formed because it was hit by objects in our solar system and effectively lost its mantle and crust.
POLITICS
Pandemic scrambles Americans’ acceptance of science
Amy Harder, Axios, October 29, 2020
The pandemic is throwing a wrench into Americans’ understanding of science, which has big implications for climate change.
Driving the news: Recent focus groups in battleground states suggest some voters are more skeptical of scientists in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, while surveys reveal the persistence of a deep partisan divide.
Why it matters: Science is at the heart of understanding the impacts of a warming world and what kind of policies governments should enforce.
The world’s response to COVID-19 is providing what some experts say is a hyper-fast glimpse into how the world might address climate change over a longer period of time.
Climate change, because it’s slower moving and its impacts more diffuse, is going to be even harder to tackle than a relatively fast-moving pandemic.
Where it stands: Swing voters in five battleground states surveyed over the last six months expressed an increasing skepticism about science as the pandemic took over America.
by wp_sysadmin | Oct 28, 2020 | News
News of the Day:
More Oil, More Jobs, More State Revenue Approved for Alaska!!
OIL
Exxon is making a huge bet on oil’s future.
Derek Brower, Financial Times, October 27, 2020
“Some believe the dramatic drop in demand resulting from coronavirus reflects an accelerating response to the risk of climate change, and suggest that our industry won’t recover,” Darren Woods, the company’s chief executive, told staff last week. “But as we look closely at the facts and the various expert assessments, we conclude that the needs of society will drive more energy use in the years ahead — and an ongoing need for the products we produce.”
GAS
Biden’s Vacillating on Fracking Could Put America at Risk, said Energy Industry Leader Fred Schneiderman at 20 Days to Save the USA
A leading figure in the energy sector, Fred Schneiderman , speaking at the virtual conference 20 Days to Save the USA , called candidate Joe Biden’s back and forth position on fracking disconcerting, risky and irresponsible if not spelled out with clear timelines and planning. “It’s highly unlikely for us to remain energy independent if we banned fracking,” said Schneiderman. “We all want to work toward the cleanest environment possible. The issue is what’s practical, timely, economic.”
Biden has gone back and forth whether he would ban fracking and his running mate Kamala Harris has signed on to the Green New Deal, said Schneiderman. “We don’t know if this is $9 trillion obligation or a $100 trillion obligation,” he said. “We need an understanding of the true cost and a timeline that’s realistic for the American people to understand before they cast their ballot.”
To destroy the oil and gas fossil fuel industry without a clear and concise plan would be irresponsible. It would risk our national security, stop coalitions around the world from coming together and send jobs of hard-working Americans overseas, he said.
MINING
Today is your last chance to submit comments in support of the Stibnite Gold Project. Help the U.S. bring mining and the minerals critical to our national security & economic wellbeing home. Comment now!
POLITICS
Eye rolls and gagging in AK Senate race
Julia Manchester, The Hill, October 28, 2020
“Mostly it’s just the sheer weight of the amount of money that’s got everybody gagging up here,” Hackney said, referring to the outside money being spent on Gross’s behalf. “What a lot of people don’t understand is that there is a point of no return on money where it keeps getting spent. If you run the same ad 5,000 times rather than 500 times, its effectiveness is not only massively reduced, but it gets a lot more scrutiny from people. So, the things Gross built his campaign on have certainly come under a great deal of scrutiny.”
by wp_sysadmin | Oct 27, 2020 | News
OIL
U.S. oil producers bet on $42 oil prices in 2021
Paul Takahashi, Houston Chronicle, October 27, 2020
U.S. oil producers are betting that crude prices will stay low well into next year, hedging some of their production at around $40 a barrel in 2021. Exploration and production companies have so far hedged 41 percent of their forecasted 2021 oil output at an average West Texas Intermediate price of $42 a barrel, 25 percent lower than this year’s hedged price floor of $56 per barrel, according to Rystad. The hedge is in line with current crude prices, which are hovering around $39 a barrel as of Tuesday morning.
GAS
From LNG Unlimited, October 27, 2020
ConocoPhillips bets on America natural gas value to couple with global LNG
ConocoPhillips, one of the pioneers of LNG in North America, is taking over unconventional onshore oil and gas company Concho Resources in an all-stock deal for $9.7 billion plus debts to lower future production costs and cash in on value of US gas assets. The ConocoPhillips deal also includes Concho’s net debt of $3.9Bln, valuing the transaction at $13.6Bln.
Larger
The combination will be the largest independent oil and gas company, with production of over 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
ConocoPhillips said the transaction brings together contiguous and complementary acreage positions across the Delaware and Midland basins and includes positions in the Eagle Ford Shale and Bakken Basin in the Lower 48 States and in the Montney Shale in Canada.
The largest of Concho’s core areas is in the Delaware Basin where its position spans 520,000 gross acres.
The Delaware Basin is a large geographic area spanning the southwest corner of New Mexico and parts of West Texas.
Analysts noted that the US major had always been a pioneer with American resources and its predecessor company started LNG exports to Japanese utilities more than 50 years ago from the small-scale Kenai Peninsula plant in Alaska that has now closed.
ConocoPhillips also still holds key LNG resources, including the operatorship of the Australia-Pacific LNG export plant in Queensland with partners such as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec.
Its other LNG assets include a stake in the Qatargas III project, a mega-Train in Qatar with partners Qatar Petroleum and Mitsui & Co. of Japan.
ConocoPhillips said that the Concho deal is expected to capture $500 million of annual cost and capital savings by 2022 from lower general and administrative costs and a reduction in ConocoPhillips’ future global new ventures
MINING
Reinventing Our Domestic Minerals Supply Chain in a Post-Pandemic World
Real Clear Politics, Bipartisan Roundtable Discussion, October 1, 2020
The past year has laid bare the myriad problems associated with the U.S.’ overreliance on mineral imports and adversarial approach to domestic mineral production. U.S. mineral import reliance has more than doubled over the past 25 years while mineral demand for key technologies and industries is soaring. Whether through global shutdowns imposed by countries holding the position as a lead supplier of a key commodity or trade tensions with geopolitical rivals, multiple threats have emerged to American industry’s ability to get the minerals needed for energy, technology, medical and manufacturing supply chains. Congress has taken note with a flurry of key pieces of legislation intended to support minerals mining in the U.S. This roundtable will discuss the severity of the challenge in the U.S., the increasing demands that lie ahead, the policy solutions that are within reach, and how the election may impact it all.
POLITICS
Factbox: How a Biden presidency would transform the U.S. energy landscape
Reuters, October 27, 2020
Should Joe Biden win November’s U.S. presidential election, there could be a number of changes in energy policy. Here are the issues at stake:
INTERNATIONAL OIL SUPPLIES
President Donald Trump’s unilateral sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela have together taken around 3 million barrels per day of crude oil off international markets, a little more than 3% of world supply. That has fit neatly into Trump’s “Energy Dominance” policy of maximizing U.S. energy production while constraining the supply of geopolitical rivals, for both economic and political advantage. With the Trump administration continuing to ramp up sanctions measures on both countries in recent weeks, there is no sign there would be a change of course if Trump is re-elected. Biden, however, has shown an interest in multilateral diplomacy similar to previous Democratic administrations. That could mean an eventual path for Iran, and perhaps Venezuela, to get out from under Washington’s sanctions and start pumping again, if the right conditions are met. In Iran, that path could include a partnered approach between Washington and Europe, similar to a deal struck under Obama’s administration.
by wp_sysadmin | Oct 26, 2020 | News
OIL
From the Washington Examiner, Daily on Energy:
SEISMIC TEST FOR ANWR: Interior’s Bureau of Land Management is considering an application for a company to do seismic oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, according to a proposal posted to the agency’s website Friday.
The Bureau will accept public comment on the proposal, filed by the Kaktovik Iñupiat Corporation, a group representing members of an Alaskan native tribe, for two weeks before deciding whether to grant the permit. The permit would allow SAExploration, a Houston-based company that has declared bankruptcy, to do seismic testing through a portion of ANWR’s coastal plain beginning in January, a timeline that environmentalists consider rushed and politically-motivated to head off a potential policy change from Biden.
It would be the first oil exploration in ANWR since the 2017 Republican tax cut bill allowed oil and gas development in a 1.56 million-acre section of the long untouched refuge, known as the “1002 area,” where billions of barrels of oil are believed to lie beneath the coastal plain.
GAS
Natural gas viewed more positively than other fossil fuels across 20 global publics
Brian Kennedy, Alison Spencer AND Cary Fun, Pew Research Center, October 19, 2020
As governments around the world debate the mix of fossil fuel and renewable sources they use to meet their energy needs, public attitudes about natural gas are mostly positive, according to a recent international survey by Pew Research Center.
Majorities support expanding natural gas in most places; far fewer support expanding oil, coal
A median of 69% of adults across the 20 global publics favor expanding the use of natural gas, including about two-thirds or more in 16 of those places. The survey was conducted between October 2019 and March 2020 in the United States, Canada, Brazil, Russia and other places in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
MINING
Golden decade coming to Fort Knox Mine
Shane Lasley, North of 60 Mining News, October 23, 2020
A look at Kinross Gold Corp.’s newly optimized strategy for Fort Knox indicates that the iconic mine about 20 miles north of Fairbanks, Alaska will be producing upwards of 400,000 ounces of gold per year for most of the coming decade. The global gold producer introduced its new plans for Fort Knox during an Oct. 20 presentation that provided a more in-depth look into its plan to increase companywide gold output by 500,000 oz/year by 2023. This production growth strategy, first mentioned by Kinross management in September, is forecast to boost the company’s annual gold output from 2.4 million oz this year to 2.7 million oz in 2022 and 2.9 million oz in 2023.
POLITICS
No, Really — Don’t Pay Attention to Early Voting Data
Sean Trende, Real Clear Politics, October 26, 2020
It’s that most wonderful time of year. After endless speculation, analysis, and hedging, we are tantalizingly close to having actual new election data to work with. Given this, it is a natural temptation for analysts to gravitate toward the one piece of hard data that we have in our possession: early voting numbers. Take, for example, this piece from Politico, claiming that the Democrats’ massive lead in early voting is a “warning flare.”
I have given my response on this matter before: Don’t try to divine election results from early voting returns. I made this point in 2016, when people were making the exact same arguments about Democrats’ chances off of similar data.
The problem today is the same as it was back then. Rather than reinvent the wheel, I’ll summarize my basic argument from four years ago: Unless you somehow know what is going to happen on Election Day, this argument is useless. To take an extreme example: Democrats could turn out every one of their voters early, and Republicans could still win the election by turning out more on Election Day.
