Supermajors to the rescue for AKLNG? Mining rocks for Alaska!

Supermajors to the rescue for AKLNG? Mining rocks for Alaska!

Supermajors Set Out To Save Alaska LNG
Tim Daiss, OilPrice.com, March 28, 2019

Technical teams from the Alaska Gasline Development Corp. (AGDC) and supermajors BP and ExxonMobil will meet next week in Houston to begin a review of the proposed $43 billion Alaska LNG project in an effort to find potential cost reductions so the massive capex project can move forward, Tim Fitzpatrick, an AGDC spokesman said on Tuesday. Discussions will begin on April 2 and last for most of the month, he said, adding that about “25 technical folks from ExxonMobil, BP and AGDC will meet in Houston on the cost reduction workshop.”

Our Take: The return of the private sector to the project will make a big difference in how the state legislature and the public view the legitimacy of the project. A very good move by the Dunleavy administration.

US LNG sector on track for a big year ahead
Caroline Evans, Upstream, March 28, 2019

THIS year is bound to be a red-letter one for the US liquefied natural gas industry, which is expected to see an unprecedented number of final investment decisions and a big production boost as more export facilities come online. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects US LNG export capacity will reach 8.9 billion cubic feet per day by the end of 2019, more than double the level at the end of 2018. The increase would make the nation the third-largest LNG exporter in the world, behind Australia and Qatar.

Infected U.S. Shale Oil Is Being Turned Away by Asian Buyers
Serene Cheon, Sharon Cho & Alfred Cang, Bloomberg, March 27, 2019

The complex web of U.S. pipelines, tanks and export terminals that’s helped make America the world’s top oil producer is causing a headache for some crude buyers. As various types of crude pass through the supply chain from inland shale fields spanning Texas to North Dakota, they risk picking up impurities before reaching Asia — the world’s biggest oil-consuming region. Specifically, refiners are worried about the presence of problematic metals as well as a class of chemical compounds known as oxygenates, which can affect the quality and type of fuel they produce. Two refiners in South Korea — the top buyer of U.S. seaborne supply — have rejected cargoes in recent months due to contamination that makes processing difficult.

Our Take: A trend worth watching for Alaska. Shale is a tough competitor for us.

From our friends at the Alaska Miners Association:

Court rules in favor of NEPA process at Palmer Project – A federal court recently ruled that BLM does not have to consider future impacts of mining development when considering exploration plan of operations applications. This stems from a 2016 plan to expand exploration activity at the Palmer Project in which BLM approved; upon which environmental groups and the Chilkat Indian Village of Klukwan sued. The Southeast Alaska Conservation Council (SEACC), Lynn Canal Conservation, and Rivers Without Borders complaint alleged that issuance of an Environmental Assessment supporting construction of the mineral exploration road in 2016 violated NEPA because they failed to describe the environmental impacts. Judge Burgess disagreed, ruling that mineral exploration and development are not “inextricably intertwined” because mineral exploration does not always lead to development. Therefore, it is inappropriate from BLM to review potential future impacts from development before approving exploration plans.

Our Take: Good news! The benefits of mining to Alaska should never be underestimated.

  • $120m in government revenue in 2017 and $48.4m to municipalities through fees, rents, sales, royalties and taxes
  • 3,392 full-time jobs in 2017, up 5% from 2016
  • Average wage for these jobs? $107,820, more than twice the average private-sector wages
  • The Alaska Permanent Fund earned $5.2m from the mining industry in 2017
  • Mining companies purchased $580m of goods and services from Alaska vendors in 2016
  • The mining industry paid $276.5m in royalty payments to Native Corporations in 2017
  • More than $2.9m in charitable donations was given to Alaska communities by the mining industry in 2017

Shale revolution saves lives; Tax relief leads to LNG investment…in Canada

Shale revolution saves lives; Tax relief leads to LNG investment…in Canada

Research finds US shale revolution is responsible for saving tens of thousands of lives every year
Mark J. Perry, AEI, March 25, 2019

The American shale gas revolution, with it’s 57% increase in natural gas production in the US since 2006, contributed to a 53% decrease in natural gas prices has helped to save tens of thousands of deaths every year. Likewise, any increase in average winter temperatures would similarly reduce winter mortality in the US and around the world. In contrast, how many lives would be lost if the Green New Deal was implemented and energy prices from inefficient windmills and solar panels dramatically increased?

According to The Economist “Few businesspeople have done as much to change the world as George Mitchell,” the father of fracking, who pioneered the economic extraction of shale gas. George Mitchell died in 2013, but if he were still alive, I would nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize for changing the world and saving tens of thousands of lives from lower energy costs. The Father of Fracking has saved infinitely more lives then past Nobel Peace laureates like Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama and Al Gore.

AGDC Study Could Decide Future Of AK LNG Project
Jennifer Williams, KSRM, March 27, 2019

The future of the Alaska LNG project could be decided in the next 50 days depending on the results of an economic study conducted by the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC). Governor Mike Dunleavy: “AGDC is supposed to come out with an economic study, within 50-55 days, that will determine how or if we move forward. Depending on what that data shows us we will have a discussion with the legislature and see how they want us to proceed.”   Governor Dunleavy traveled to Houston for an international energy conference two weeks ago. Dunleavy: “Long story short, the world is awash in gas right now. Some of these projects could be a challenge, but we are still looking.”

Related:

Oil and gas news briefs for March 28, 2019, Larry Persily

Tax relief package for LNG likely to win approval in B.C. Parliament

British Columbia’s New Democrats have crafted what will be necessary to put the province on a competitive level with rival jurisdictions for LNG development. On March 25, they introduced a package of tax relief and credits valued at $6 billion over 40 years — and it looks like they calculated correctly. In October, Shell and its partners made a final investment decision on the Kitimat-based LNG Canada project, predicated on B.C. upholding its side of the fiscal agreement.

Status quo isn’t sustainable
Andrew Jensen, Alaska Journal of Commerce, March 27, 2019

There’s been no shortage of sturm and drang over Gov. Michael J. Dunleavy’s proposal to radically overhaul the state budget with deep cuts to K-12 and university education, Medicaid and the state ferry system. What there has been very little of from the defenders of the status quo are alternatives to achieve better outcomes and reform the state’s unsustainable spending habits.

Our Take: There will be a compromise. “Neither solution is achievable in the reality of a divided government in Juneau, but only one recognizes the old axiom known as Stein’s Law: “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

Related:

                  Alaska house subcommittees propose much smaller cuts than those in Dunleavy’s budget

From the Washington Examiner Daily on Energy:

SENATE DEMOCRATS BACK LAMAR ALEXANDER’S GREEN NEW DEAL ALTERNATIVE: Senate Democrats expressed support Wednesday for a Republican alternative to the progressive “Green New Deal,” one that calls for doubling federal energy research funding to spur clean and affordable energy.

Democrats said Sen. Lamar Alexander’s, R-Tenn., “New Manhattan Project for Clean Energy” could produce bipartisan agreement on areas such as spending on advanced nuclear energy research, natural gas, carbon capture technologies for fossil fuel plants, advanced batteries for energy storage, energy efficient buildings, cheaper solar energy technologies, and electric cars.

“Green colonialism” in new ANWR legislation; Murkowski goes Nuclear

“Green colonialism” in new ANWR legislation; Murkowski goes Nuclear

Which Native voices? On Arctic Refuge, lawmakers practice selective listening
Liz Ruskin, Alaska Public Media, March 26, 2019

A bill in Congress would reverse the 2017 decision to open the northernmost part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling. A hearing about it in the U.S. House Tuesday became a debate, sometimes an angry one, over which Alaska Native people should have the ear of Congress.

From the testimony of Fenton Rexford, Kaktovik

“Your legislation doesn’t mention the human rights of the Kaktovikmiut. Your legislation doesn’t mention the Kaktovikmiut at all. It doesn’t mention the Iñupiat people. What about our rights? What about our land, which has been our home since time immemorial? What about our resources? What about our interest in the Porcupine caribou herd, on which we rely as well? What about our voice? Do you intend for us to disappear? We do not exist in your legislation.

Since the Federal Government showed up 152 years ago, outside groups have used the Federal Government as a tool to assert their own interest in our land. One of the few outside groups that has not claimed an interest in our land is the oil and gas companies. Instead, we have invited them to our land, and we have formed a powerful government — the North Slope Borough — to make sure that their activities return benefit to our people and our communities.

As Iñupiat, we maintain our traditional values, while our culture continues to evolve and adapt to the changing world around us. We are not an exhibit in a museum. Nor should the lands that we have survived and thrived from for centuries be locked away for the peace of mind of those from faraway places. This school of thought amounts to nothing more than green colonialism – a political occupation of our lands in the name of the environment while others exploit the idea of Wilderness for economic gain”

From the Washington Examiner Daily on Energy:

MURKOWSKI GOES NUCLEAR WHEN IT COMES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee chairwoman Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, is expected to drop a bill as soon as this afternoon focused on spurring the development of advanced nuclear reactors to address greenhouse gas emissions and resiliency, John has learned.

The Nuclear Energy Leadership Act will make use of the federal government to create a market for new, smaller, advanced reactors. The bill would also address making the U.S. more competitive with nuclear technology rivals Russia and China.

 

Poppycock put to rest. EPA’s Wheeler wimps out.

Poppycock put to rest. EPA’s Wheeler wimps out.

Conservation remains a core conservative principle
Andrew Sabin and Trammell Crow, The Hill, March 25, 2019

Something extraordinary is happening on Capitol Hill. This month, a once-in-a-generation public lands bill passed with overwhelming Republican support and was signed into law by President Trump. And this month, Republicans announced the formation of the bicameral Roosevelt Conservation Caucus to promote conservation and conservative solutions to environmental challenges. The caucus is led by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Brian Mast (R-Fla.). The GOP is going on offense.

Our Take: “Republican support for the package and the creation of the new caucus should finally put to rest the false narrative — pushed, unfortunately, by groups on the left that purport to support environmental protection — that Republicans don’t care about the environment, conservation or public lands. Poppycock.”

EPA administrator recuses himself from Pebble Mine decisions
Associated Press, March 26, 2019

The head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says he is recusing himself from decisions related to the proposed Pebble Mine in southwest Alaska. Andrew Wheeler, in a memo, says his former employer provided services to a client related to the Pebble project. His memo doesn’t provide details on that but Wheeler, a former lobbyist, says he wasn’t personally involved. Still, he says he’s voluntarily recusing himself from matters related to the project during his EPA tenure, including any associated litigation, settlement agreement and permitting. The Pebble Limited Partnership wants to develop a copper and gold mine in Alaska’s Bristol Bay region. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is evaluating a permit application by the project, one of dozens of permits, approvals and authorizations Pebble says it will need.

Our Take:   Disappointing. This is caving in to alarmists who want to keep anyone from the private sector who has been involved in resource development from being involved in government. We have laws and an established process to follow. No need to recuse.

BP creates $100 mln fund for GHG emissions reduction projects
LNG World News, March 26, 2019

Oil and gas giant BP said it has set aside $100 million to fund projects that will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in its Upstream oil and gas operations. The new Upstream Carbon Fund will provide further support to BP’s work generating sustainable greenhouse gas emissions reductions in its operations, the company said in a statement. In April 2018, BP set near-term and specific targets aimed at reducing its emissions and advancing the energy transition, including achieving 3.5 million tonnes of sustainable GHG emissions reductions across the BP Group from 2016 to 2025 and targeting a methane intensity of 0.2 percent.

 

March Madness in NM (renewables) and Alaska (the budget).

March Madness in NM (renewables) and Alaska (the budget).

New Mexico Set To Require 100% Carbon-Free Energy Generation
Alyssa Danigelis, Energy Manager Today, March 14, 2019

New Mexico lawmakers passed Senate Bill 489, requiring the state to get 100% of its energy from carbon-free sources by 2045. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham praised the landmark legislation and is expected to sign the bill. The state is set to join California and Hawaii in approving ambitious renewable energy mandates. The proposal authorizes the use of bonds for electric utility Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) to pay for the costs associated with closing a coal-fired power plant located in the Four Corners area, the Albuquerque Journal’s Dan McKay explained. Requirements for investor-owned utilities in the state to shift to carbon-free generation would happen in phases: 50% from renewable sources by 2030 and 80% by 2040.

Our Take: News about SB 489 passing came around the same time as the state Oil Conservation Division published statistics showing that oil production in New Mexico hit a record high in 2018.

Related:

Had They Bet On Nuclear, Not Renewables, Germany & California Would Already Have 100% Clean Power

Going broke
Craig Medred, March 23, 2019

Alaska is Alice Rogoff, and if you watched the rise, the fall and the implosion of what was the Alaska Dispatch News, you know how that story ended. Alaska struggled and clawed for survival before oil was struck on the North Slope in 1968, but ever since the crude started flowing in 1977, Alaskans have been living easy on the money of oil industry’s labor. Forty-two years is a long time to live outside reality. People become conditioned to the idea life will always be easy and the money will always be there.

Our Take:   We couldn’t agree more. This legislature will most likely kick the can down the road. “All politicians agree there is fat in the state budget right up until the time it comes time to go on a diet, and then a lot of the fat becomes muscle. Anyone who has ever gone on a diet can understand the problem. Dieting is difficult. You have to control your desires. And Alaskans have spent decades eating what they want.”

Here’s the one ‘big, looming’ threat facing the oil rally, commodity expert says
Lizzy Gurdus, CNBC, March 24, 2019

One oil bull sees a “big, looming” risk bubbling up in the energy market. RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft, the firm’s global head of commodity strategy, is generally bullish on oil prices. She sees OPEC’s commitment to productions cuts, the United States’ sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and overall demand for crude as healthy drivers of the oil rally, which has taken per-barrel prices up by nearly a third so far this year. But there’s one major risk that could threaten this recent surge, Croft told CNBC in an interview on “Futures Now.”