Survey says? Alaska top 5 in mining attractiveness; Bright & Unpredictable

Survey says? Alaska top 5 in mining attractiveness; Bright & Unpredictable

 

Annual Survey of Mining Companies, 2018
Ashley Stedman and Kenneth P. Green, Fraser Institute, February 28, 2019

Takeaways from the report include:

  • Alaska ranks 5th in Investment Attractiveness (2nd in the US—Nevada ranks higher)
  • Alaska ranks 26th (mid-range) in Policy Perception
  • Alaska ranks 2nd in Best Practices Mineral Potential (2nd in the US—Nevada ranks higher)
  • Alaska ranks 5th in the global survey ranking for investment, up from 10th in 2017

Select “Read the Whole Survey” on the Fraser Institute webpage to read more about how the rankings were formulated.

Alaska’s oil production future could be bright, but it’s also unpredictable

Rashah McChesney, Alaska’s Energy Desk, February 27, 2019

Alaska’s oil production has remained relatively flat in recent years, but there could be changes on the horizon as new fields come online on the North Slope. The state House Finance Committee heard an update from the Department of Natural Resources on Wednesday. They were told that the legacy fields — those that are currently producing oil — are still the backbone of the state’s oil production. “But as we go out, you know, five-to-six years out, projects that are expected to come online beyond this fiscal year begin to play a more important role,” said DNR Commercial Analyst Maduabuchi Pascal Umekwe. There are new projects coming online, like Hilcorp’s Milne Point Moose Pad, ConocoPhillips’ CD5 expansion and Greater Mooses Tooth 2. There are also new discoveries in development, like Oil Search’s Pikka.

Our Take: As Alaskans deal with the shock of a budget where revenues meet expenses, its important to remember that the largest funding source for the budget comes from oil production. Increase oil production, increase revenue for the state.   Policy matters.

Ottawa gives $1.6 million to Kivalliq hydro-fiber link study
Sarah Rogers, Arctic Today, February 28, 2019

Canada’s federal government will help pay for a study to look at the feasibility of connecting Nunavut’s Kivalliq region west of Hudson Bay to Manitoba’s hydroelectric and fiber-optic networks.  Just a few weeks after the Kivalliq Inuit Association pitched the project to federal officials in Ottawa, the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency (CanNor) delivered support in the form of a $1.6-million investment. That will help fund a two-year technical and feasibility study on developing a hydroelectric and fibre-optic link that would connect communities in the Kivalliq region to northern Manitoba.

Our take: We have heard from our members that a fibre link to remote communities would greatly enhance operations. This is a tremendous step in both technological advancements and also in providing stable energy for studied regions.

Two U.S. bills could advance American presence in the Arctic
Melody Schreiber, Arctic Today, February 28, 2019

The two bills — the Arctic Policy Act (APA) and the Shipping and Environmental Arctic Leadership Act (SEAL Act) — were both introduced late last year but saw little movement before the session ended.  Alaska Sen. Murkowski, a Republican, plans to reintroduce them this spring. Addressing the Alaska State Legislature on February 19, Murkowski framed both pieces of legislation as ways to shore up resources for Alaska and to compete on an increasingly international stage.

Wheeler nears final approval
Kelsey Tamborrino, POLITICO, February 28, 2019

The Senate will vote at 12:30 p.m. today on Andrew Wheeler’s nomination to formally become EPA administrator. Although he’s lost a few backers since his confirmation for deputy, Wheeler is expected to sail through the Republican-controlled chamber. Wheeler has faced questions over his ties to his former lobbying days, as well as over the agency’s handling of PFAS chemicals. But enough Republicans back Wheeler that he should easily clear the chamber today. Wheeler’s “experience makes him uniquely qualified to serve as the head of the agency,” Senate EPW Chairman John Barrasso said from the floor Wednesday.

Oil is stable, Poland wants US LNG, Hollis is out

Oil is stable, Poland wants US LNG, Hollis is out

Oil Has Best Start to a Year Ever as OPEC Production Falls
Amrith Ramkumar, Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2019

Oil prices are off to their best-ever start to a year as fears of a supply glut cool, part of a 2019 recovery in risky investments from stocks to commodities. Oil prices and energy stocks rose Wednesday after data showed U.S. stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week. Fears linger that demand for oil will stall. But the International Energy Agency still expects consumption to increase each quarter this year from a year earlier, albeit at a slower-than-usual pace in the first quarter. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have curbed output, despite calls from President Trump for the cartel to keep prices low. Anxiety also remains about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, fueling bets that prices can at least stay steady even if the rally stalls.

Related: Oil Holds Losses Below $56 After Trump Warns Against High Prices

POLAND SIGNS UP FOR MORE US LNG: REPORT
Tim Gosling, Natural Gas World, February 26, 2019

State-controlled PGNiG is set to agree to buy a further 3bn m3/year, according to the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna daily. That would boost Poland’s planned purchases of US LNG following 2022 by 40%. Late last year Poland agreed several long-term deals that will see it import around 6.7bn m3/yr from the US.  PGNiG is at the forefront of the Polish government’s push to increase independence from Russian supplies, and establish itself as a hub for the region. Gazprom currently supplies around 10mn m3/y of Poland’s annual consumption of 16mn m3/yr. The pair’s long-term contract expires in 2022. Poland says it does not plan to extend the agreement.

The push to phase out heavy fuel oil in the Arctic continues
Jane George, ArcticToday, February 27, 2019

IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim said that reducing the risks linked to use of the fuel, commonly known as HFO, in the Arctic is “imperative” as the organization’s High Level Conference on Climate Change and Oceans Preservation in Brussels before the IMO meeting got underway in London on Tuesday, Feb. 19.  Canada, along with Russia, remains one of the few countries that haven’t taken a position on the ban.  This wasn’t always the case. In late 2016, Canada stated it supported a “phase down” on HFO in its Arctic waters. “Since then, Canada’s position on a HFO ban has changed — it no longer actively supports the ban — a stark contrast to many progressive countries — such as Nordic nations — who vocally support the ban,” said the Clean Arctic Alliance. Meanwhile, Canada has called for assessments into the impacts of an HFO ban on Arctic Indigenous communities.

Our take: Environmental conservation efforts should not come at the cost of communities. Canada’s approach of ensuring that there are no adverse impacts to Arctic communities should be applauded. Meanwhile, as Arctic traffic is increases, moving toward vessel fuel that produces lower emissions and presents a lower spill risk is prudent.

Governor fires chair of Alaska oil and gas commission
Alex DeMarban, Anchorage Daily News, February 26, 2019

Gov. Mike Dunleavy Tuesday removed the chair of the commission overseeing oil and gas activity, citing “neglect of duty,” following complaints from two commissioners that Hollis French spent limited time at work. The governor said his decision to remove French from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission was “effective immediately,” according to a short letter addressed to French Tuesday and released by the governor’s office.

“Crisis of Perception”; Increased use of natural gas drives down air pollution

“Crisis of Perception”; Increased use of natural gas drives down air pollution

Shell launches LNG Outlook 2019

Strong demand for cleaner-burning fuel in Asia continued to drive rapid growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) use in 2018, with global demand rising by 27 million tonnes to 319 million tonnes, according to Shell’s latest LNG Outlook.

OVERVIEW

  • Growing recognition of the role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the world tackles poor air quality and climate change
  • Asian LNG imports exceed expectations again in 2018, absorbing continued supply growth
  • Near-term supply growth expected to be absorbed by Europe and Asia.
  • Continued need for investment in supply to meet long-term demand growth

Our Take: Good news for Asia and the rest of the world!   As noted in a recent EPA report, increased natural gas use drives down air pollution. A practical solution to addressing climate change that doesn’t require joining the Paris Accord or rely on a “keep it in the ground” strategy.  

Saudi Aramco CEO blasts climate campaigners’ impatience to end oil use
Nick Coleman and Alisdair Bowles, S & P Global, February 26, 2019

The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, on Tuesday blasted the impatience of climate change campaigners, saying the industry needed time to become cleaner and had to do its “job” of meeting global demand. Speaking at the IP Week conference in London, Nasser said Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest corporate supplier of crude oil, was making “huge” investments in efficiency and tackling emissions, in collaboration with others. But he played down the rate of uptake of electric vehicles and said technologies such as CCS (carbon capture and storage), intended to mitigate climate change by storing CO2 underground, were not yet commercially viable and, though they would eventually “prevail,” would need time to “become commercial.”  Nasser said the industry faced a “crisis of perception” and urged his audience to “push back on exaggerated theories like peak oil demand,” referring to the view that oil consumption could peak as soon as the next decade.

OPEC, allies to maintain oil output cuts despite Trump
Rania El Gamal, Reuters, February 26, 2019

OPEC and its allies will stick with their agreement to cut oil supply, pushing for more adherence despite a demand by U.S. President Donald Trump that the producer group ease its efforts to boost crude prices, a Gulf OPEC source said on Tuesday. Based on current market data, the so-called OPEC+ group is “likely to continue with the production cuts until the end of the year”, the source told Reuters.

ADN chooses to mislead public; Herz headline hyperbole

ADN chooses to mislead public; Herz headline hyperbole

 

Oil and gas industry ‘left harmless’ in Dunleavy budget, Democrats say
James Brooks, February 24, 2019

Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s proposed cuts to state services have drawn the ire of many Alaskans, but something uncut is drawing attention from the two minority members of the Senate Finance Committee. Sen. Bill Wielechowski, D-Anchorage, and Sen. Donny Olson, D-Golovin, said last week that the governor is leaving the oil and gas industry untouched even as he pursues cuts to education, health care and other state services.

Our Take: This is a horrible headline, meant to make readers believe that companies like BP, Exxon and ConocoPhillips are getting money in the state budget when others are receiving drastic cuts Nothing could be further from the truth. As Kara Moriarty points out, these are payments required by law and they are going to smaller companies – like Furie, BlueCrest and Caelus. Headlamp is disappointed that the ADN intentionally chooses to mislead people. A more accurate headline would have been “Alaskan support companies remain unpaid while state attempts to pay what it owes.”

Oil Falls After Trump Warns Crude Prices ‘Too High’
Dan Molinski and David Hodari, The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2019

  • Oil prices fell from three-month highs Monday after President Trump warned crude-oil prices are getting too high and could hurt the global economy.
  • West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. oil standard, fell 2% to $56.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI ended Friday at $57.26 a barrel, its highest closing price since Nov. 12.

Alaska GOP Gov. Dunleavy disbands state climate response team
Nathaniel Herz, Alaska’s Energy Desk, February 23, 2019

Alaska Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy has formally disbanded the task force formed by his predecessor to guide the state’s response to global warming. In an administrative order this week, Dunleavy revoked a separate, 2017 order by Bill Walker, an independent, establishing the task force and a state climate change strategy. Dunleavy’s order was not publicly announced. The governor’s office sent letters to task force members around 5 p.m. Friday informing them that their work for the task force “has ended.” The state’s website dedicated to the task force and strategy also appears to have been taken down.

Our Take:   Sloppy reporting by Herz. Governor Walker’s task force was led by someone who lived in Seattle, who was paid a six- figure salary in addition to the state paying for all of her travel to and from the state. And Nat, the website dedicated to the task force was removed December 5th and reported by numerous media outlets.   We expect better….oh wait, no we don’t.

Got Gas? China needs it, but not from US.

Got Gas? China needs it, but not from US.

China en route to being world’s largest LNG import market
Natural Gas News, February 21, 2019

China became the largest single gas importer in 2018 as demand again easily outstripped production. This raises two questions. How much more imported gas will it need in coming years, and how much will comprise LNG? The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2018, published in November, projects a near-tripling in Chinese gas demand to 708bn m3 by 2040. Imports are projected to rise from 42% of gas supply in 2017 to 54% over this period. China’s voracious demand for LNG over the next decade is expected to underpin global investment in LNG production capacity.

US-China trade dispute puts a chill on American natural gas export boom
Tom DiChristopher, CNBC, February 22, 2019

  • The global gas market experienced fewer disruptions than feared this winter after China slapped tariffs on U.S. liquefied natural gas.
  • However, the ongoing trade dispute has halted Chinese purchases of U.S. LNG and put a chill on some new American export terminals. It threatens to sideline billions in investment.
  • At least one U.S. LNG export terminal delayed a final investment decision, and analysts say the trade war could hold up other projects.

Canada’s Barrick Gold considers hostile $19 billion bid for Newmont Mining
Melanie Powers, Reuters, February 21, 2019

Canada’s Barrick Gold Corp is considering a hostile bid for Newmont Mining Corp for about $19 billion in stock, in what would potentially be one of the largest-ever mining deals, the country’s Globe and Mail newspaper reported.

Our Take: Barrick Gold is the biggest gold mining company in the world and the parent company for the Donlin project in Alaska.

90-day comment period for Pebble mine review is inadequate, Sullivan says
Becky Bohrer, Associated Press, February 21, 2019

U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan said a 90-day comment period is inadequate for a draft environmental review of a large copper and gold mine near the headwaters of a major Alaska fishery. “It’s a very legitimate request from my perspective to have more time to do the due diligence on a project of this size,” the Republican Sullivan told reporters Thursday, noting he would likely make a formal request for additional time.